# Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 12 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcchamp
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:56.012Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 8¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championship-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-chi |
| Washington | 4¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-pro-football-nfc-champions-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-was |
| Dallas | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championship-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-dal |
| Seattle | 14¢ | ±0 | $820 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championship-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-sea |
| New York G | 3¢ | — | $705 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-g-win-the-pro-football-nfc-champions-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-nyg |
| Detroit | 9¢ | — | $562 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championship-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-det |
| San Francisco | 8¢ | — | $476 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-the-pro-football-nfc-champi-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-sf |
| Minnesota | 3¢ | — | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championsh-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-min |
| Los Angeles R | 15¢ | — | $196 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-win-the-pro-football-nfc-champi-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-lar |
| Green Bay | 10¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championsh-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-gb |
| Philadelphia | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-win-the-pro-football-nfc-champio-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-phi |
| Tampa Bay | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championsh-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-tb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 6 |
| 2026-04-19 | 15 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the Los Angeles R will win the NFC Championship during the 2026 NFL season, currently priced at 8% probability. The relatively low odds reflect that winning a conference championship requires sustained success through multiple playoff rounds—typically only two of 16 teams per conference advance that far. Key drivers for this probability include the team's current roster strength, injury status heading into the season, and their playoff track record. The primary catalyst for price movement will be the team's regular season performance from September through December 2026, with significant shifts likely after key divisional matchups and as the playoff picture clarifies in late autumn. The market will ultimately resolve when the 2027 NFC Championship game is played in early January.

### Key factors

- Los Angeles R's regular season win-loss record through Week 17 of the 2026 NFL season (directly affects playoff seeding and matchup difficulty)
- Health and availability of key offensive and defensive players heading into and throughout the 2026 season
- Historical playoff performance: whether the team has demonstrated championship-caliber execution in previous postseason appearances
- Strength of competing NFC teams and divisional performance relative to Los Angeles R's conference peers
- The team's performance in critical September-December games that typically determine playoff qualification and seeding

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnfcchamp

## License

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