# Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC East Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfceast
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.291Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 35¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-pro-football-nfc-east-division-kalshi-kxnflnfceast-27-dal |
| Philadelphia | 36¢ | −1pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-win-the-pro-football-nfc-east-di-kalshi-kxnflnfceast-27-phi |
| New York G | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-g-win-the-pro-football-nfc-east-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfceast-27-nyg |
| Washington | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-pro-football-nfc-east-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfceast-27-was |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 26% probability reflects market expectations that Philadelphia will finish first in the NFC East division during the 2026 NFL season. The current odds suggest moderate skepticism about the Eagles' divisional prospects relative to rivals like Dallas and Washington. Key factors shaping this view likely include recent team performance, roster composition, injury status heading into the season, and off-season acquisitions. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the 2026 NFL regular season, which typically runs September through early January, with the division winner determined by win-loss record. Movement in this probability would depend on preseason performance, training camp reports, and any significant injuries or trades announced before September.

### Key factors

- Philadelphia's win-loss record relative to other NFC East teams during the 2026 regular season will determine the outcome; the division winner is decided by head-to-head tiebreakers and overall record
- Roster changes and injury status entering the 2026 season, including quarterback health and availability of key defensive players, will affect competitive positioning
- Offensive and defensive performance metrics through the regular season, including scoring efficiency and defensive rankings, will influence playoff positioning within the division
- The strength of schedule and performance against common opponents will determine whether Philadelphia finishes ahead of Washington, Dallas, and New York
- Trading activity or coaching changes during the off-season could shift competitive dynamics within the division before the season begins

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfceast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnfceast

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