# Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcnorth
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:12.679Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $677

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 16¢ | −1pp | $535 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-min |
| Detroit | 34¢ | +1pp | $143 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divisi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-det |
| Chicago | 23¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divisi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-chi |
| Green Bay | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-gb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 33 |
| 2026-05-25 | 20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Minnesota +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Minnesota −3pp 21→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates that Detroit has a 26% chance of winning the NFC North Division in the 2026 NFL season. The Lions' division prospects depend on their competitive standing relative to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago—teams with established quarterback situations and playoff histories. Factors affecting this estimate include Detroit's offseason roster moves, injury status of key players, and performance through early season games. The division outcome will be determined through regular season play, with meaningful data points emerging as teams play through fall 2026. Current market pricing suggests investors view Detroit as a viable but not favored contender in a competitive division.

### Key factors

- Detroit's current roster composition and any major offseason acquisitions or departures compared to division rivals
- Historical win-loss performance of Detroit versus other NFC North teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- Quarterback performance and health status for Detroit and competing teams entering the 2026 season
- Injury trends affecting key defensive and offensive contributors for all four division teams
- Head-to-head scheduling and strength of schedule effects within the division for the 2026 season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcnorth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnfcnorth

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.