# Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcsouth
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.974Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $464

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 22¢ | ±0 | $422 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-pro-football-nfc-south-divisi-kalshi-kxnflnfcsouth-27-atl |
| Carolina | 22¢ | ±0 | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-win-the-pro-football-nfc-south-divis-kalshi-kxnflnfcsouth-27-car |
| New Orleans | 29¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-win-the-pro-football-nfc-south-di-kalshi-kxnflnfcsouth-27-no |
| Tampa Bay | 30¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-south-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfcsouth-27-tb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 27 |
| 2026-06-12 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 28 |
| 2026-06-25 | 23 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Atlanta −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Atlanta +4pp 21→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Carolina −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Carolina +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · New Orleans −3pp 31→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 25% chance that the New Orleans Saints will win the 2026 NFC South division title. The Saints' divisional outlook depends primarily on roster strength relative to division rivals (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and injury health throughout the season. A weak offense or defensive injuries could lower their odds, while successful draft picks and free-agent signings could raise them. The division winner will be determined at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings are set based on head-to-head records against divisional opponents. Performance in preseason games and early regular-season matchups against NFC South rivals will provide concrete data on competitive positioning before mid-season playoff implications clarify.

### Key factors

- Roster composition and offensive line health entering the 2026 season compared to divisional competitors
- Win-loss record in head-to-head divisional matchups, which determine tiebreakers and direct playoff seeding implications
- Quarterback performance consistency, particularly in critical division games during weeks 13-18 of the regular season
- Defense ranking among NFC South teams through Week 9, correlating with playoff contention odds
- Key injury developments to star offensive or defensive players before training camp concludes in August 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcsouth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnfcsouth

## License

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