# Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC West Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcwest
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.851Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $299

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles R | 48¢ | +2pp | $283 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-win-the-pro-football-nfc-west-d-kalshi-kxnflnfcwest-27-lar |
| Seattle | 27¢ | −1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-pro-football-nfc-west-divisio-kalshi-kxnflnfcwest-27-sea |
| San Francisco | 20¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-the-pro-football-nfc-west-d-kalshi-kxnflnfcwest-27-sf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 36 |
| 2026-06-09 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 19 |
| 2026-06-26 | 27 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Los Angeles R −3pp 49→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects the 33% probability that the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The Rams compete directly with other strong franchises in a competitive division, making their odds moderate rather than prohibitive. Key drivers of this probability include the Rams' roster composition and quarterback performance relative to division rivals like the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, as well as coaching changes and injury trajectories throughout the offseason. The primary uncertainty resolves over the 2026 NFL regular season (typically September through December), with playoff implications determined by end-of-season standings. Momentum could shift based on preseason performance, draft results, and free-agent signings over the coming months.

### Key factors

- Current Rams roster depth and projected starting lineup compared to other NFC West contenders entering the 2026 season
- Performance of the Rams' starting quarterback and whether key offensive or defensive personnel are healthy through training camp
- Strength of schedule relative to division rivals and head-to-head matchup outcomes during the regular season
- Management decisions on trades, free agency, or coaching staff that materially alter team composition before Week 1
- Recent draft performance and rookie contributor impact in the first season for new players

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnfcwest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnfcwest

## License

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