# Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 8 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflopoty
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:52.842Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3¢ | +2pp | $600 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-win-the-offensive-player-o-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-jsmi |
| De'Von Achane | 3¢ | — | $402 | kalshi | /markets/will-devon-achane-win-the-offensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-dach |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7¢ | −2pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-win-the-offensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-jgib |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-win-the-offensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-jcha |
| Justin Jefferson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-jefferson-win-the-offensive-player-of-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-jjef |
| Puka Nacua | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-puka-nacua-win-the-offensive-player-of-the-ye-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-pnac |
| Bijan Robinson | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-win-the-offensive-player-of-th-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-brob |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-mccaffrey-win-the-offensive-player-kalshi-kxnflopoty-27-cmcc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 7 |
| 2026-04-18 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 6 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Bijan Robinson +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba −3pp 4→1¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 5% probability reflects market expectations that Christian McCaffrey will not win NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2026. This low probability suggests traders believe other players are substantially more likely to claim the award. The current level likely reflects McCaffrey's performance through early May, including any injuries, statistics accumulated, or role changes on his team. The probability would increase if McCaffrey puts up elite statistical numbers in upcoming games or if other top candidates underperform. The key catalyst for resolution will be the NFL season's final games in December, followed by voting and the award announcement, typically in February 2027. Until then, weekly performance updates, injury reports, and trades could shift expectations meaningfully.

### Key factors

- McCaffrey's statistical performance (rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions) through the remainder of 2026 relative to other elite offensive players
- Injury status and availability—any significant injuries would likely reduce his award chances substantially
- Competition from other star offensive players (quarterbacks, receivers, running backs) and their respective performance levels
- Team success and media narratives around individual vs. team accomplishments, which influence voting patterns for individual awards
- Volume of trading activity and contract pricing on related markets suggesting relative confidence in competing candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflopoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflopoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.