# Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 15 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfloroty
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:21:03.102Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-28

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Beck | 4¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-beck-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-cbec |
| Makai Lemon | 7¢ | ±0 | $285 | kalshi | /markets/will-makai-lemon-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-mlem |
| Jadarian Price | 10¢ | ±0 | $242 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadarian-price-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jpri |
| Jordyn Tyson | 12¢ | +3pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordyn-tyson-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jtys |
| KC Concepcion | 5¢ | +1pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-kc-concepcion-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-kcon |
| Eli Stowers | 5¢ | — | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-eli-stowers-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-esto |
| Fernando Mendoza | 24¢ | +3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-mendoza-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-fmen |
| Carnell Tate | 13¢ | −1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnell-tate-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-ctat |
| Chris Brazzell II | 3¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-brazzell-ii-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-cbra |
| Germie Bernard | 4¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-germie-bernard-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-gber |
| Jeremiyah Love | 23¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiyah-love-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jlov |
| Ty Simpson | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-simpson-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-ye-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-tsim |
| Jonah Coleman | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonah-coleman-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jcol |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-omar-cooper-jr-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-ocoo |
| Chris Bell | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-bell-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-ye-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-cbel |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 12 |
| 2026-04-19 | 14 |
| 2026-04-26 | 10 |
| 2026-05-03 | 11 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Jordyn Tyson +4pp 6→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Carson Beck +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Carson Beck −3pp 5→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jordyn Tyson +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Jordyn Tyson +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Jadarian Price has a relatively modest chance of winning the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Price's current market price of 11 cents places him fourth among tracked candidates, well behind Fernando Mendoza at 24 cents but close to Jordyn Tyson at 12 cents. The probability is shaped primarily by Price's statistical performance relative to other rookie offensive players and his opportunity level within his team's offensive scheme. As the 2026 NFL season progresses through the fall, playing time, production metrics, and comparative performance against other rookie contenders will drive this probability up or down. The award itself will be determined in early 2027 based on the full regular season record, making ongoing weekly performance data the key driver of market movements.

### Key factors

- Price's actual playing time and snap count compared to other top rookie offensive candidates through the season
- His offensive statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, rushing performance depending on position) relative to Mendoza, Beck, Lemon, and Tyson
- Team offensive scheme changes, injuries to starters, or coaching decisions that affect Price's role and opportunities
- Market volume and trading patterns show Mendoza at 24 cents commands significantly higher confidence, indicating Price faces structured competition
- The award voting typically rewards peak statistical performance in either passing or rushing categories, making efficiency metrics critical to Price's case

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfloroty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfloroty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.