# Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflplayoff
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.892Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York J | 11¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-nyj |
| Minnesota | 38¢ | −1pp | $738 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-min |
| New York G | 28¢ | −1pp | $368 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-g-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-nyg |
| Las Vegas | 17¢ | +2pp | $295 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-lv |
| Cincinnati | 61¢ | — | $275 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-cin |
| Chicago | 48¢ | −2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pl-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-chi |
| Baltimore | 72¢ | −1pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-bal |
| Atlanta | 31¢ | ±0 | $136 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pl-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-atl |
| Los Angeles C | 64¢ | — | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footb-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-lac |
| Detroit | 64¢ | −1pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pl-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-det |
| Buffalo | 77¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pl-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-buf |
| Los Angeles R | 75¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footb-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-lar |
| New England | 60¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footbal-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-ne |
| Dallas | 50¢ | +1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pla-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-dal |
| Pittsburgh | 35¢ | — | $63 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-pit |
| Kansas City | 63¢ | ±0 | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footbal-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-kc |
| Carolina | 27¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-p-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-car |
| Houston | 58¢ | +1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-football-pl-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-hou |
| Indianapolis | 35¢ | — | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-indianapolis-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footba-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-ind |
| Jacksonville | 50¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacksonville-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footba-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-jac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 46 |
| 2026-06-11 | 60 |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 |
| 2026-06-25 | 49 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Minnesota +4pp 38→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Minnesota −4pp 42→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · New York J −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Minnesota has roughly even odds of making the NFL playoffs in the 2026-27 season. The Vikings' postseason chances depend primarily on their win-loss record this fall and whether they can compete in what appears to be a competitive NFC landscape. Key drivers include quarterback performance and health, the strength of their division rivals, and roster composition heading into the season. The resolution of this contract will come after the regular season concludes in early 2027, when playoff seeding is officially determined. Until then, week-to-week performance during the 2026 NFL season will be the primary signal affecting market expectations.

### Key factors

- Minnesota's 2025 regular season record and current roster composition relative to NFC playoff contenders
- Quarterback health and performance, particularly if key defensive or offensive contributors are available through the season
- Competitive strength of the NFC North division, especially relative to Green Bay and Detroit performance
- Win-loss trajectory through the 2026 season, with specific attention to games in weeks 13-18 when playoff positioning typically clarifies
- Comparison to other teams' playoff odds, particularly teams priced between 10¢ and 31¢ like New York Giants, Carolina, and Las Vegas

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflplayoff

## License

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