# Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 19 contracts — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflplayoffhost
Updated: 2026-09-21T13:20:49.305Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-15

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pr-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-atl |
| Baltimore | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-bal |
| Buffalo | 68¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pr-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-buf |
| Dallas | 41¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pro-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-dal |
| Denver | 39¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pro-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-den |
| Detroit | 41¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pr-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-det |
| Green Bay | 30¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-gb |
| Houston | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pr-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-hou |
| Kansas City | 96¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-kc |
| Las Vegas | 62¢ | +53pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-lv |
| Los Angeles R | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-la |
| Miami | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pro-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-mia |
| Minnesota | 95¢ | +79pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-min |
| New England | 38¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-ne |
| New York G | 94¢ | +38pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-g-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-nyg |
| Philadelphia | 48¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-phi |
| San Francisco | 42¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-sf |
| Seattle | 39¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-pr-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-sea |
| Tampa Bay | 42¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-host-a-playoff-game-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflplayoffhost-26-tb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | 28 |
| 2026-09-12 | 35 |
| 2026-09-19 | 46 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · New York G +87pp 7→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Minnesota +82pp 13→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Minnesota −79pp 95→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Minnesota +79pp 16→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · New York G −76pp 94→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the Kansas City Chiefs will earn a playoff berth and secure home-field advantage in at least one postseason game during the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. The 26% estimate reflects their current regular-season positioning and historical performance relative to other AFC teams. The primary drivers of this probability are Kansas City's win-loss record relative to other conference contenders, their strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2026 regular season, and playoff seeding implications. The resolution will be determined by the NFL regular season's conclusion in early January 2027, when playoff seedings are finalized. Comparing this to similar teams (Buffalo at 51%, Denver at 28%, Cincinnati at 32%) suggests markets view Kansas City's current playoff positioning as below average for tier-one contenders.

### Key factors

- Kansas City's current 2026 regular-season record compared to division rivals (AFC West) and AFC playoff contender standings
- Remaining strength of schedule and head-to-head tiebreaker implications through the end of the regular season in January 2027
- Playoff seeding outcome: only division winners and top six seeds host playoff games, so KCC must finish within AFC top-6
- Injury status of key roster players including starting quarterback and defensive core
- Performance trends across the final 8-10 weeks of the 2026 regular season relative to competing AFC teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflplayoffhost
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflplayoffhost

## License

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