# Pro Football

> Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit leads at 85%, runner-up 77% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflprimetime
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:52.295Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-23

## Headline

- Leader: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit at 85%
- Runner-up: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo at 77%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit | 85¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-detroit-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-det |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo | 77¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-buffalo-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-buf |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Chicago | 60¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-chicago-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-chi |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Dallas | 60¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-dallas-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-dal |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Green Bay | 60¢ | −32pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-green-ba-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-gb |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Baltimore | 29¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-baltimor-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-bal |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Houston | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-houston-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-hou |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: San Francisco | 11¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-san-fran-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-sf |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Indianapolis | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-indianap-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-ind |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Denver | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-denver-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-den |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Las Vegas | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-las-vega-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-lv |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Atlanta | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-atlanta-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-atl |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Pittsburgh | 4¢ | +3pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-pittsbur-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-pit |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Jacksonville | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-jacksonv-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-jac |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: New England | 3¢ | ±0 | $690 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-new-engl-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-ne |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Arizona | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-arizona-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-ari |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Carolina | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-carolina-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-car |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Cincinnati | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-cincinna-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-cin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Detroit | Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo | Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 77 | — | 94 |
| 2026-08-26 | 79 | 77 | 95 |
| 2026-09-06 | 77 | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — | 60 | 99 |
| 2026-09-12 | 85 | — | 60 |
| 2026-09-17 | 77 | 60 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 85 | 77 | 69 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Denver −20pp 25→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: New England −19pp 23→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo +17pp 60→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Pittsburgh −16pp 19→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo −16pp 76→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Chicago Bears will receive at least 5 primetime NFL games during the 2026-2027 season. The 96-97% concentration suggests high confidence in this outcome, likely driven by Chicago's large media market and recent roster investments. Primetime game allocations depend on several factors: the Bears' expected competitiveness based on offseason moves, NFL scheduling preferences for marquee matchups, and conference/divisional balance requirements. The main driver of change would be significant trades, injuries to key players, or unexpected roster composition shifts before final schedules are announced. NFL typically releases its full schedule in May; any material changes to team strength between now and that announcement could shift market pricing. Currently, minimal trading volume suggests consensus on this outcome rather than active disagreement.

### Key factors

- Chicago is the third-largest U.S. media market, historically favoring primetime allocations regardless of team performance
- Market pricing at 96-97% indicates near-certainty; resolution depends on NFL's schedule announcement and final game allocation to the Bears
- Competing contracts for Baltimore (20¢) and other teams show Chicago is heavily favored over alternatives but not absolutely guaranteed
- Zero trading volume across contracts suggests limited new information flow; major roster news (trades, injuries) could shift expectations materially
- Primetime game counts typically range 4-7 per team; reaching the 5+ threshold is common for mid-to-large-market franchises but not automatic

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflprimetime
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflprimetime

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.