# Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 8 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflprooty
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.104Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-21

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $618

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Alt | 6¢ | −1pp | $618 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-alt-win-the-protector-of-the-year-joe-alt-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-jalt76 |
| Armand Membou | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-armand-membou-win-the-protector-of-the-year-a-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-amembou70 |
| Garett Bolles | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-garett-bolles-win-the-protector-of-the-year-g-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-gbolles72 |
| Lane Johnson | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lane-johnson-win-the-protector-of-the-year-la-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-ljohnson65 |
| Laremy Tunsil | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-laremy-tunsil-win-the-protector-of-the-year-l-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-ltunsil78 |
| Penei Sewell | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penei-sewell-win-the-protector-of-the-year-pe-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-psewell58 |
| Quinn Meinerz | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-quinn-meinerz-win-the-protector-of-the-year-q-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-qmeinerz77 |
| Trent Williams | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trent-williams-win-the-protector-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnflprooty-27-twilliams71 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 10 |
| 2026-05-14 | 8 |
| 2026-05-21 | 1 |
| 2026-05-29 | 4 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Trent Williams +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Joe Alt +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Trent Williams −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 5% probability reflects that Lane Johnson is considered unlikely to win the Protector of the Year award, placing him among several competing offensive linemen for the honor. The market shows meaningful dispersion across comparable players—Penei Sewell leads at 7%, while Garett Bolles and Lane Johnson tie at 6%, suggesting evaluators see them as near-peers. Johnson's probability would rise with exceptional performance metrics (pass protection efficiency, penalty reduction, consensus All-Pro selections) and fall if other candidates demonstrate superior play or accumulate individual awards throughout the season. The award decision typically occurs in January or February following the NFL regular season, when complete statistical records and voter preferences become clear.

### Key factors

- Lane Johnson's current age (36 in 2026) relative to younger competitors like Sewell (mid-20s), which could influence 'Protector of the Year' voting patterns
- Playing time and availability—any significant injuries or reduced snap counts would directly impact award eligibility and statistical accumulation
- Comparative performance metrics: sack rate, pressure percentage, and holding penalty count relative to Sewell, Bolles, Humphrey, and Thuney
- All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection results, which typically correlate strongly with major annual awards in the NFL
- Team success and narrative—players on playoff teams often receive preferential award voting treatment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflprooty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflprooty

## License

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