# Will Cam Ward record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 56% across 13 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonpasstds
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:46.802Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 56% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $183

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 55¢ | −1pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-shough-record-20-passing-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-tshough6 |
| Joe Burrow | 20¢ | — | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-record-40-passing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c40-jburrow9 |
| Caleb Williams | 4¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-williams-record-20-passing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-cwilliams18 |
| Malik Willis | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-willis-record-25-passing-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-mwillis2 |
| Daniel Jones | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-jones-record-20-passing-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-djones17 |
| Joe Burrow | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-record-20-passing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-jburrow9 |
| Jaxson Dart | 62¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxson-dart-record-20-passing-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-jdart6 |
| Jordan Love | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-love-record-20-passing-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c20-jlove10 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-rodgers-record-25-passing-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-arodgers8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baker-mayfield-record-25-passing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-bmayfield6 |
| Brock Purdy | 52¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brock-purdy-record-25-passing-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-bpurdy13 |
| Dak Prescott | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-record-25-passing-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-dprescott4 |
| Josh Allen | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-record-25-passing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonpasstds-27c25-jallen17 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 85 |
| 2026-08-18 | 62 |
| 2026-08-25 | 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | 29 |
| 2026-08-27 | 31 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-27 · Joe Burrow +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses the likelihood that Cam Ward will throw 20 or more touchdown passes during the 2026-07 NFL regular season, currently priced at 60%. The probability reflects expectations about Ward's role, offensive system, and offensive line performance with his NFL team. Key drivers include the quality of his receiving corps, total passing volume relative to rushing attempts, and whether he secures a starting position immediately or shares duties early in the season. The probability will sharpen once the NFL season begins in September 2026 and actual performance data emerges; preseason games and roster finalization in early September will provide early signals about his role and usage patterns.

### Key factors

- Passing volume: 20+ TDs typically requires 4,000+ passing yards; context on Cam Ward's team's pass-heavy tendency versus ground-game emphasis
- Starting status: Whether Ward is the immediate starter or shares snaps significantly affects total passing opportunities across 17 games
- Receiving talent: Quality and health of his top three targets; WR1/2 performance and tight end availability directly correlate with TD production
- Team offense efficiency: Red zone conversion rates and overall scoring output; a low-scoring offense limits TD opportunities regardless of pass attempts
- Injury risk: Both Ward's durability and key offensive skill-position players; one injury to top receivers could alter target distribution and TD potential

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonpasstds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonpasstds

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.