# Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 6 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonpassyds
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.225Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $148

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 35¢ | — | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-maye-record-4500-passing-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c4500-dmaye10 |
| Joe Burrow | 30¢ | — | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-record-4500-passing-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c4500-jburrow9 |
| Dak Prescott | 20¢ | −1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-record-3500-passing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c3500-dprescott4 |
| Joe Burrow | 6¢ | +4pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-record-3000-passing-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c3000-jburrow9 |
| Caleb Williams | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-williams-record-3500-passing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c3500-cwilliams18 |
| Jared Goff | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-goff-record-3500-passing-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonpassyds-27c3500-jgoff16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 2 |
| 2026-05-13 | 2 |
| 2026-05-20 | 3 |
| 2026-05-27 | 20 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Joe Burrow +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether Caleb Williams will exceed 3,500 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. At 9%, the market prices this as unlikely for a second-year quarterback. Williams would need to maintain high volume and efficiency over 17 games, outcomes affected by team passing scheme, offensive line health, and receiver availability. Comparison markets show even established quarterbacks face low probabilities at this threshold—Dak Prescott trades at 20% and Jared Goff at 3%. The resolution depends on final 2026 season statistics, with clarity arriving in early 2027 after the regular season concludes in early January.

### Key factors

- Caleb Williams completed his rookie 2025 season; second-year development trajectory and actual passing volume are unknown variables
- 3,500 yards over 17 games requires ~206 yards per game; this threshold excludes a significant portion of NFL starters annually
- Chicago Bears' offensive scheme, particularly run-pass balance and play-calling tendencies under head coaching staff, directly determines passing attempts available
- Injury status of Williams, offensive line, and receiving corps through 2026 season materially affects completion percentage and yardage output
- Historical precedent shows only 15-20 qualified starters typically exceed 3,500 yards annually across the entire NFL

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonpassyds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonpassyds

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.