# Will George Pickens record 100+ receptions during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 14 contracts — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrec
Updated: 2026-07-10T01:20:51.511Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 27¢ | — | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-romeo-doubs-record-75-receptions-during-2026-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-rdoubs87 |
| A.J. Brown | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-brown-record-100-receptions-during-the-202-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c100-abrown11 |
| Brock Bowers | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brock-bowers-record-100-receptions-during-the-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c100-bbowers89 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emeka-egbuka-record-100-receptions-during-the-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c100-eegbuka2 |
| George Pickens | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-pickens-record-100-receptions-during-t-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c100-gpickens3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-record-100-receptions-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c100-jsmithnjigba11 |
| Drake London | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-london-record-120-receptions-during-the-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c120-dlondon5 |
| George Pickens | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-pickens-record-120-receptions-during-t-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c120-gpickens3 |
| Christian Watson | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-watson-record-75-receptions-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-cwatson9 |
| De'Von Achane | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devon-achane-record-75-receptions-during-2026-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-dachane28 |
| DJ Moore | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dj-moore-record-75-receptions-during-2026-27-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-dmoore2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devonta-smith-record-75-receptions-during-202-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-dsmith6 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 26¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emeka-egbuka-record-75-receptions-during-2026-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-eegbuka2 |
| George Pickens | 52¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-pickens-record-75-receptions-during-20-kalshi-kxnflseasonrec-27c75-gpickens3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 21 |
| 2026-07-08 | 26 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Emeka Egbuka +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 70% probability that George Pickens will catch 100 or more passes during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Pickens is a second-year receiver whose 2025 performance and target volume will largely determine the likelihood of reaching this threshold. Most receivers achieving 100-reception seasons operate in high-volume passing offenses or serve as the primary receiving option. The resolution depends on data available after the 2026 season concludes (February 2027), when final NFL statistics are compiled. Key uncertainty factors include his role within the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, quarterback play and consistency, injury availability over a full 17-game season, and how target distribution evolves as the team's receiving corps matures. Comparable probabilities for other receivers like A.J. Brown (85%) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (95%) suggest market confidence varies considerably based on established track records and offensive context.

### Key factors

- Pickens' 2025 season reception total and target share will establish baseline expectations for 2026 performance
- The Steelers' passing game approach and depth chart composition determine whether Pickens receives sufficient target volume
- Pickens must maintain full season availability across all 17 games, as injuries significantly reduce reception accumulation
- Quarterback consistency and decision-making impact target allocation and completion rates to Pickens
- 100 receptions historically requires either elite volume (8+ targets per game) or efficiency at conversion rates above 65%, constraining the range of likely scenarios

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonrec

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.