# Will Brock Bowers record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 16 contracts — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrectd
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:54.082Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $476

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 3¢ | +1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-trey-mcbride-record-10-receiving-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c10-tmcbride85 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 42¢ | +20pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-record-10-receiving-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c10-jchase1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 37¢ | +4pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-record-12-receiving-touchdow-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c12-astbrown14 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8¢ | −4pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-record-14-receiving-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c14-jchase1 |
| DK Metcalf | 45¢ | +2pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-dk-metcalf-record-6-receiving-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c6-dmetcalf4 |
| Chris Olave | 41¢ | +36pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-olave-record-6-receiving-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c6-colave12 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12¢ | −3pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-record-10-receiving-touchdow-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c10-astbrown14 |
| Zay Flowers | 51¢ | −10pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-zay-flowers-record-6-receiving-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c6-zflowers4 |
| Chris Olave | 23¢ | +18pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-olave-record-8-receiving-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c8-colave12 |
| DeVonta Smith | 59¢ | −9pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-devonta-smith-record-6-receiving-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c6-dsmith6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12¢ | +6pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-record-8-receiving-touchdown-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c8-astbrown14 |
| Chris Olave | 22¢ | +11pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-olave-record-10-receiving-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c10-colave12 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 17¢ | +12pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceedee-lamb-record-12-receiving-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c12-clamb88 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-record-8-receiving-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c8-jchase1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-record-8-receiving-touchdo-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c8-jsmithnjigba11 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceedee-lamb-record-8-receiving-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrectd-27c8-clamb88 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | 38 |
| 2026-09-12 | 30 |
| 2026-09-19 | 33 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba −51pp 53→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Chris Olave −42pp 47→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba +42pp 2→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · DK Metcalf +39pp 5→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · DK Metcalf −37pp 42→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 36% chance that Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers records at least 8 receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects Bowers' performance trajectory since entering the league in 2025, his target share in the Raiders' offense, and typical touchdown production rates for elite tight ends. The current level suggests market uncertainty about whether Bowers will maintain or exceed his rookie-year production. Key variables include the Raiders' offensive scheme, quarterback consistency, and red-zone usage patterns. The season begins in September 2026, providing the resolution point; performance through preseason will offer early indicators of his role in the offense.

### Key factors

- Bowers' 2025 rookie season receiving touchdown total and target volume compared to elite tight end benchmarks
- Raiders offensive coordinator scheme and whether it emphasizes tight end involvement in the red zone
- Stability of Raiders' starting quarterback and consistency of passing game efficiency through the season
- Bowers' health status and whether he maintains physical condition needed for 16-game production
- Comparative market pricing suggests similar 36-38% probability for other 2025 rookie tight ends (Loveland, Egbuka), indicating baseline expectations for the cohort

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrectd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonrectd

## License

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