# Will Ja'Marr Chase record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 13 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrecyds
Updated: 2026-07-10T02:20:49.395Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $209

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 40¢ | — | $167 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-golden-record-750-receiving-yards-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c750-mgolden0 |
| Makai Lemon | 23¢ | — | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-makai-lemon-record-1000-receiving-yards-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-mlemonwr |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-record-750-receiving-yards-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c750-jgibbs0 |
| A.J. Brown | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-brown-record-1000-receiving-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-abrown11 |
| Brock Bowers | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brock-bowers-record-1000-receiving-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-bbowers89 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-thomas-jr-record-1000-receiving-yards-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-bthomas7 |
| Colston Loveland | 10¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colston-loveland-record-1000-receiving-yards-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-cloveland84 |
| Carnell Tate | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnell-tate-record-1000-receiving-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-ctate17 |
| DJ Moore | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dj-moore-record-1000-receiving-yards-during-2-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-dmoore2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devonta-smith-record-1000-receiving-yards-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-dsmith6 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 25¢ | −20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emeka-egbuka-record-1000-receiving-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-eegbuka2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harold-fannin-jr-record-1000-receiving-yards-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-hfannin44 |
| Isaiah Likely | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-isaiah-likely-record-1000-receiving-yards-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrecyds-27c1000-ilikely9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 3 |
| 2026-06-26 | 10 |
| 2026-07-03 | 9 |
| 2026-07-09 | 20 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Colston Loveland −23pp 33→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Emeka Egbuka −20pp 45→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · A.J. Brown −16pp 25→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 32% likelihood that Ja'Marr Chase reaches 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The probability reflects his consistent production history against typical wide receiver performance thresholds. Key drivers include his team's offensive scheme and whether Cincinnati prioritizes him as the primary receiver target. The main uncertainty resolves during the regular season itself, with clarity emerging by mid-season whether his catch volume and yards-per-game pace align with the 1,000-yard threshold. Comparative markets show lower probabilities for several other prominent receivers, suggesting the 32% reflects moderate confidence in Chase's ability among the eligible field.

### Key factors

- Ja'Marr Chase's average receiving yards per season relative to games played and required yards-per-game pace
- Cincinnati Bengals' offensive play-calling and target distribution among available receivers
- Chase's injury history and availability for a full 17-game regular season
- Relative probability that competing receivers like George Pickens (54¢) and Brock Bowers (37¢) reach the threshold versus Chase
- Changes to the Bengals' roster, coaching staff, or quarterback situation between now and September 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrecyds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonrecyds

## License

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