# Will Chase Brown record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 17 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrshtd
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:53.071Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 47¢ | +1pp | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenneth-walker-iii-record-10-rushing-touchdow-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c10-kwalker9 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 37¢ | ±0 | $262 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-record-14-rushing-touchdowns-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c14-jgibbs0 |
| David Montgomery | 50¢ | +6pp | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-montgomery-record-10-rushing-touchdowns-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c10-dmontgomery32 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 12¢ | +7pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-taylor-record-16-rushing-touchdowns-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c16-jtaylor28 |
| Javonte Williams | 38¢ | +14pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-javonte-williams-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-jwilliams33 |
| Jaxson Dart | 9¢ | ±0 | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxson-dart-record-10-rushing-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c10-jdart6 |
| James Cook III | 3¢ | −25pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cook-iii-record-10-rushing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c10-jcook4 |
| Omarion Hampton | 53¢ | +5pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-omarion-hampton-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-ohampton8 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 35¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashton-jeanty-record-10-rushing-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c10-ajeanty2 |
| Breece Hall | 50¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-breece-hall-record-6-rushing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c6-bhall20 |
| David Montgomery | 65¢ | +8pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-montgomery-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-dmontgomery32 |
| Josh Allen | 55¢ | +10pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-record-12-rushing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c12-jallen17 |
| Josh Allen | 37¢ | +17pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-record-14-rushing-touchdowns-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c14-jallen17 |
| James Cook III | 8¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cook-iii-record-16-rushing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c16-jcook4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-du-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-brobinson7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 83¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-jgibbs0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-taylor-record-8-rushing-touchdowns-d-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshtd-27c8-jtaylor28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 33 |
| 2026-09-07 | 42 |
| 2026-09-12 | 34 |
| 2026-09-19 | 38 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Jonathan Taylor −64pp 68→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Jahmyr Gibbs +57pp 25→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · James Cook III −52pp 56→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · James Cook III +25pp 4→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · James Cook III −25pp 29→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Chase Brown reaching 10 or more rushing touchdowns during the 2026-07 NFL regular season is currently assigned a 38% probability, reflecting moderate skepticism about this achievement. The assessment balances the fact that 10+ rushing TDs is a meaningful statistical threshold typically reached by featured or high-volume ball carriers, against uncertainty about Brown's role, team usage patterns, and offensive scheme. Key variables include the total rushing attempts he receives, his average TD conversion rate, and whether his team maintains a run-heavy approach through the full season. Comparable running backs face similar hurdles; the related markets show Kenneth Walker III and David Montgomery at 47% and 50% respectively, while Jonathan Taylor sits substantially lower at 12%, illustrating wide variance in expectations across different backs.

### Key factors

- Chase Brown's snap count and rushing attempt allocation relative to other backs on his roster
- Historical TD conversion rate for running backs in his team's offensive system
- Red zone usage patterns and goal-line touches allocated to running backs versus pass plays
- Season-long injury risk and consistency of opportunity across 17 games
- Strength of opponent defenses faced, particularly late-season playoff-contention teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrshtd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonrshtd

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.