# Will Ashton Jeanty record 750+ rushing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 18 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrshyds
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:46.923Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-02

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $525

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 59¢ | −1pp | $301 | kalshi | /markets/will-saquon-barkley-record-1000-rushing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-sbarkley26 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 18¢ | ±0 | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-jahmyr-gibbs-record-1500-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1500-jgibbs0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 25¢ | ±0 | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashton-jeanty-record-1000-rushing-yards-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-ajeanty2 |
| Jadarian Price | 33¢ | +9pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadarian-price-record-1000-rushing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-jprice8 |
| Cam Skattebo | 10¢ | −5pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-cam-skattebo-record-1000-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-cskattebo44 |
| Omarion Hampton | 24¢ | −4pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-omarion-hampton-record-1000-rushing-yards-dur-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-ohampton8 |
| Chase Brown | 26¢ | −2pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-brown-record-1000-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-cbrown30 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 28¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathon-brooks-record-750-rushing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c750-jbrooks24 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6¢ | −10pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-jacobs-record-1000-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-jjacobs8 |
| Josh Jacobs | 15¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-jacobs-record-1250-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1250-jjacobs8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-record-1500-rushing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1500-brobinson7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamar-jackson-record-750-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c750-ljackson8 |
| Jadarian Price | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadarian-price-record-750-rushing-yards-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c750-jprice8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bhayshul-tuten-record-750-rushing-yards-durin-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c750-btuten33 |
| Breece Hall | 23¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-breece-hall-record-1000-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-bhall20 |
| Bucky Irving | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bucky-irving-record-1000-rushing-yards-during-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-birving7 |
| Bijan Robinson | 31¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-record-1000-rushing-yards-duri-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-brobinson7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 12¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-mccaffrey-record-1000-rushing-yards-kalshi-kxnflseasonrshyds-27c1000-cmccaffrey23 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | 27 |
| 2026-08-27 | 33 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Ashton Jeanty −29pp 52→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Josh Jacobs +21pp 17→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Bijan Robinson +20pp 31→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Breece Hall +18pp 26→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Breece Hall −15pp 44→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Ashton Jeanty will rush for at least 750 yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season, currently priced at 29% probability. Jeanty, a high-profile running back prospect, faces uncertainty around team context, offensive usage, and injury risk that affect his production ceiling. The threshold of 750 yards represents a meaningful but achievable target—well below elite 1,000-yard seasons but above average starter production. The probability reflects moderate skepticism about whether his team's offensive scheme and rushing volume will support that output. Key developments affecting this contract would include his team's quarterback situation, offensive line performance, and any changes to the backfield committee during the season. The resolution date is set for January 2027, when final regular-season statistics become official.

### Key factors

- Jeanty's team's rushing attempt volume and offensive line ranking relative to NFL average
- His workload share in a potential crowded backfield or role as primary starter
- Pre-season injury reports or changes to his team's offensive depth chart
- Offensive scheme efficiency metrics and yards-per-attempt performance through weeks 1-8
- Comparison of his actual touches per game against typical elite RB usage rates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflseasonrshyds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflseasonrshyds

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