# Arizona wins by over 9.5 points

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflspread
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.294Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-15

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points | 39¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/buffalo-wins-by-over-25-points-buffalo-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-buf3 |
| Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points | 41¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/buffalo-wins-by-over-15-points-buffalo-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-buf2 |
| New Orleans wins by over 16.5 points | 6¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/new-orleans-wins-by-over-165-points-new-orleans-wi-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15jacno-no17 |
| Carolina wins by over 1.5 points | 49¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-15-points-carolina-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car2 |
| Carolina wins by over 16.5 points | 10¢ | −5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-165-points-carolina-wins-by-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car17 |
| Minnesota wins by over 16.5 points | 14¢ | −4pp | $940 | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-wins-by-over-165-points-minnesota-wins-b-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15minnyg-min17 |
| Chicago wins by over 16.5 points | 11¢ | −7pp | $873 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-wins-by-over-165-points-chicago-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15clechi-chi17 |
| Chicago wins by over 13.5 points | 14¢ | −5pp | $796 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-wins-by-over-135-points-chicago-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15clechi-chi14 |
| Philadelphia wins by over 16.5 points | 12¢ | — | $656 | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-wins-by-over-165-points-philadelphia-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15phibal-phi17 |
| Carolina wins by over 4.5 points | 32¢ | +3pp | $541 | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-45-points-carolina-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car5 |
| Los Angeles wins by over 23.5 points | 3¢ | −6pp | $538 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-wins-by-over-235-points-los-angeles-wi-kalshi-kxnflspread-26sep13arilac-lac24 |
| Carolina wins by over 5.5 points | 35¢ | +5pp | $449 | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-55-points-carolina-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car6 |
| Dallas wins by over 1.5 points | 53¢ | +2pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-wins-by-over-15-points-dallas-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxnflspread-26sep13dalnyg-dal2 |
| Baltimore wins by over 14.5 points | 8¢ | — | $346 | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-wins-by-over-145-points-baltimore-wins-b-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15phibal-bal15 |
| Chicago wins by over 20.5 points | 3¢ | −5pp | $344 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-wins-by-over-205-points-chicago-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxnflspread-26sep13chicar-chi21 |
| Carolina wins by over 14.5 points | 14¢ | +1pp | $336 | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-145-points-carolina-wins-by-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car15 |
| San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points | 3¢ | −1pp | $306 | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-wins-by-over-75-points-san-francisco-kalshi-kxnflspread-26sep10sflar-sf8 |
| New Orleans wins by over 3.5 points | 31¢ | +1pp | $267 | kalshi | /markets/new-orleans-wins-by-over-35-points-new-orleans-win-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15jacno-no4 |
| Carolina wins by over 13.5 points | 17¢ | +5pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/carolina-wins-by-over-135-points-carolina-wins-by-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15carbuf-car14 |
| Dallas wins by over 14.5 points | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-wins-by-over-145-points-dallas-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxnflspread-26aug15dalsea-dal15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | 20 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Dallas wins by over 1.5 points +35pp 8→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Carolina wins by over 1.5 points +12pp 32→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Dallas wins by over 1.5 points +10pp 43→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points +8pp 7→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Chicago wins by over 16.5 points −7pp 16→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 9% probability that Arizona will win a football game by more than 9.5 points. The low probability suggests the market expects either a close contest or a Carolina victory. The pricing is driven by Carolina's apparent strength relative to Arizona, as evidenced by the higher prices on Carolina covering smaller spreads (47¢ for a 1.5-point margin versus 9¢ for Arizona's 9.5-point threshold). The market shows flat pricing across Arizona's 9.5, 10.5, and 13.5-point victory thresholds, indicating little confidence in large Arizona wins at any margin. Resolution depends on the actual game outcome, which will settle the related margin contracts once the final score is recorded. Currently, zero 24-hour volume on the Arizona contracts suggests limited recent trading activity to establish these prices.

### Key factors

- Carolina's tighter point-spread contracts (1.5-point and 2.5-point wins) are priced significantly higher than Arizona's, indicating market conviction Carolina is the favored team
- Arizona's prices remain flat at 9¢ across all three larger margin thresholds (9.5, 10.5, 13.5 points), suggesting minimal differentiation in perceived probability of blowout wins
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on Arizona contracts indicates these prices may be stale or reflective of minimal market interest rather than actively formed consensus
- Carolina's higher prices on smaller margins imply the market views Carolina either winning outright or winning decisively, not a close game favoring Arizona
- The 9% probability for a 9.5-point Arizona win is consistent with treating Arizona as a substantial underdog in this matchup

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.