# Will Green Bay be eliminated in the Wildcard Round in the 2026-27 Pro Football season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 9 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflstageofelim
Updated: 2026-08-10T05:20:48.908Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-07

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildcard Round | 11¢ | ±0 | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-be-eliminated-in-the-wildcard-rou-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27no-wc |
| Regular Season | 42¢ | +3pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-be-eliminated-in-the-regular-season-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27gb-reg |
| Wildcard Round | 11¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-be-eliminated-in-the-wildcard-round-i-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27chi-wc |
| Wildcard Round | 15¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-be-eliminated-in-the-wildcard-rou-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27ne-wc |
| Regular Season | 64¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-eliminated-in-the-regular-seaso-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27was-reg |
| Wildcard Round | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-eliminated-in-the-wildcard-roun-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27was-wc |
| Regular Season | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-be-eliminated-in-the-regular-season-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27ten-reg |
| Regular Season | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-be-eliminated-in-the-regular-season-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27tb-reg |
| Wildcard Round | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-be-eliminated-in-the-wildcard-round-kalshi-kxnflstageofelim-27tb-wc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | 41 |
| 2026-08-03 | 54 |
| 2026-08-10 | 42 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Regular Season +4pp 60→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Regular Season +4pp 70→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Wildcard Round −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Regular Season +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Regular Season +3pp 39→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 20% chance that the Green Bay Packers will be eliminated in the NFL Wildcard Round during the 2026-27 season, meaning they either miss the playoffs entirely or win their division/conference enough to advance past Wildcard play. The probability reflects expectations about Green Bay's roster strength and NFC North competitiveness. Key factors influencing this estimate include the Packers' current roster composition, injuries to key players, divisional rivals' strength (particularly Chicago and Minnesota), and overall NFC playoff seeding dynamics. Uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as team performance becomes measurable, with the NFL playoff bracket formally determined by late December 2026 when the season concludes. The market essentially prices in a moderately strong playoff position for Green Bay rather than early elimination.

### Key factors

- Green Bay's win-loss record and playoff seeding through the 2026 regular season will directly determine wildcard round participation, with stronger records reducing elimination probability
- The competitiveness of the NFC North division will drive whether Green Bay secures a division title versus a wildcard spot, with Chicago and Minnesota performance being critical variables
- Injuries to key offensive or defensive players during the season could significantly alter playoff trajectory and elimination risk
- Comparative strength of other NFC teams will affect the overall playoff bracket and Green Bay's path, particularly wild card berth competition
- Head-to-head performance against divisional opponents determines playoff seeding and directly impacts whether Green Bay plays in the Wildcard Round

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflstageofelim
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflstageofelim

## License

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