# Will the single season receiving yards record be broken

> Over 5477 passing yards leads at 11%, runner-up 10% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflsznrecord
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.790Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Leader: Over 5477 passing yards at 11%
- Runner-up: Over 149 receptions at 10%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5477 passing yards | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-single-season-passing-yards-record-be-bro-kalshi-kxnflsznrecord-27pyds-y |
| Over 149 receptions | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-single-season-receptions-record-be-broken-kalshi-kxnflsznrecord-27rec-y |
| Over 2105 rushing yards | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-single-season-rushing-yards-record-be-bro-kalshi-kxnflsznrecord-27rshyds-y |
| Over 23 sacks | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-single-season-sack-record-be-broken-over-kalshi-kxnflsznrecord-27sack-y |
| Over 1964 receiving yards | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-single-season-receiving-yards-record-be-b-kalshi-kxnflsznrecord-27recyds-y |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Over 5477 passing yards | Over 149 receptions | Over 2105 rushing yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | 4 | 3 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | — | 5 | 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | — | 5 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-24 · Over 1964 receiving yards −12pp 19→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Over 1964 receiving yards +10pp 9→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Over 23 sacks −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses the probability that an NFL player will exceed 1,964 receiving yards in a single season, currently priced at 10% based on limited trading activity. The record has stood since 1961 and requires sustained elite performance across a full 17-game season. The probability reflects that while several receivers regularly approach or exceed 1,600 yards, breaking 1,964 demands both exceptional talent and favorable circumstances including health, offensive scheme alignment, and target volume. The 2026 NFL season (ongoing through January 2027) will determine whether any current receiver achieves this threshold. The market shows lower confidence in receiving yards being broken compared to sack records, suggesting historical difficulty in reaching this specific benchmark despite modern offensive evolution.

### Key factors

- Current NFL receiving yards leaders in 2026 season and their proximity to 1,964 yards as of late August
- Comparison of recent single-season receiving yard totals (2020-2025) to identify trend toward or away from the record
- Gap between the receiving yards record (1,964) and the next closest modern-era seasonal totals
- Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ implies approximately 5% implied probability, suggesting low but non-negligible odds
- Historical frequency of season-long 1,600+ yard receiving seasons versus the rarity of 1,900+ yard seasons

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflsznrecord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflsznrecord

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.