# Will Josh Allen be #1 on the Pro Football Top 100 List

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 8 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflt100
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.553Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-09

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Garrett | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-myles-garrett-be-1-on-the-pro-football-top-10-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r1-mgarrett95 |
| Matthew Stafford | 14¢ | −9pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-stafford-be-1-on-the-pro-football-top-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r1-mstafford9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 8¢ | — | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-be-1-on-the-pro-football-top-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r1-pmahomes15 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 23¢ | +7pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-be-3-on-the-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r3-jsmithnjigba11 |
| Matthew Stafford | 26¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-stafford-be-2-on-the-pro-football-top-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r2-mstafford9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaxon-smith-njigba-be-1-on-the-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r1-jsmithnjigba11 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-anderson-jr-be-1-on-the-pro-football-top-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r1-wanderson51 |
| Dak Prescott | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-be-2-on-the-pro-football-top-100-kalshi-kxnflt100-26r2-dprescott4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 50 |
| 2026-07-26 | 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | 37 |
| 2026-08-09 | 33 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba −17pp 31→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Matthew Stafford −15pp 42→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Matthew Stafford −9pp 17→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Matthew Stafford +9pp 33→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Josh Allen will be voted the #1 player on the NFL Network's Pro Football Top 100 list in 2026. Allen's 14% probability places him fourth among active candidates, behind Myles Garrett (32%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (21%), and Ja'Marr Chase (9%). The Top 100 list is determined by votes from current NFL players, making recent on-field performance, playoff success, and overall impact the primary drivers. Allen's ranking will depend on how his 2025 season unfolds—particularly whether the Bills advance deep into the playoffs and whether his statistical output matches or exceeds competitors. The list is typically released in summer, which means the 2025 regular season and playoffs will be the decisive period for determining candidacy. Historical voting patterns show that recent championship runs and individual accolades heavily influence final rankings.

### Key factors

- Josh Allen's playoff performance and team success during the 2025 NFL season, as deep playoff runs historically correlate with top rankings
- Comparative voting strength of competing candidates, particularly Garrett and Smith-Njigba, whose current market prices suggest higher player preference
- Allen's regular season statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, turnovers) relative to peer group in 2025
- Recency bias in player voting, which typically favors standout performances from the immediately preceding season
- The timing and methodology of player voting for the Top 100 list, which occurs after the season concludes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflt100
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflt100

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