# Will Indianapolis draft a Defensive Lineman / Edge first

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflteam1pos
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:56.197Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 11¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lotter-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-uta |
| Cameron Boozer | 3¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-first-in-the-pro-mens-basketbal-kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-cboo |
| Ausar Thompson | 96¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ausar-thompson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-autho |
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| 10 freshmen drafted | 37¢ | ±0 | $305 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-freshmen-players-will-be-drafted-in-the-t-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26fre-10 |
| Julian Sayin | 4¢ | +1pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsay |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6¢ | −2pp | $238 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsmi |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 17¢ | +4pp | $184 | kalshi | /markets/will-rueben-bain-jr-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-rbai |
| Chicago | 5¢ | ±0 | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-chi |
| Arch Manning | 23¢ | −14pp | $163 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-a-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-aman |
| Washington | 13¢ | ±0 | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-was |
| Brooklyn | 13¢ | +1pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lo-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-bkn |
| Indiana | 13¢ | ±0 | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-ind |
| CJ Allen | 5¢ | +1pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-cj-allen-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-call |
| Dallas | 6¢ | +1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lott-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-dal |
| Caleb Downs | 5¢ | −3pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-downs-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-cdow |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-atl |
| Sacramento | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sacramento-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-sac |
| Memphis | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-memphis-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-mem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Arch Manning −14pp 28→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Arch Manning +10pp 18→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Arch Manning +9pp 12→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jeremiah Smith +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Arch Manning −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflteam1pos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflteam1pos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.