# Will Miami allow the fewest points scored

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 5 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflteamdpts
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:56.710Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-allow-the-fewest-points-scored-balt-kalshi-kxnflteamdpts-least27-bal |
| Denver | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-allow-the-fewest-points-scored-denver-kalshi-kxnflteamdpts-least27-den |
| Houston | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-allow-the-fewest-points-scored-housto-kalshi-kxnflteamdpts-least27-hou |
| Kansas City | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-allow-the-fewest-points-scored-ka-kalshi-kxnflteamdpts-least27-kc |
| Los Angeles R | 25¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-allow-the-fewest-points-scored-kalshi-kxnflteamdpts-least27-lar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | 14 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Denver −13pp 18→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Los Angeles R −9pp 34→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Houston −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 16% chance that Miami's defense will allow fewer points than all other NFL teams during the 2026 season. The current price suggests Miami is among the middle-tier favorites for this outcome, trailing Houston (25%) but competitive with Los Angeles and other teams. Miami's defensive performance depends primarily on their ability to maintain consistency across the full season without significant injuries to key defensive personnel. The main factors driving this probability are the team's current roster composition, coaching staff stability, and injury history relative to other AFC East competitors. The outcome will be fully determined once the regular season concludes and final defensive statistics are compiled, making this a season-long bet dependent on sustained performance rather than any single near-term catalyst.

### Key factors

- Miami's defensive personnel health and availability across all 17 regular season games compared to competitors
- Historical defensive efficiency metrics for Miami versus teams like Houston, Los Angeles, and other division rivals
- Coaching changes or defensive coordinator adjustments that could impact scheme effectiveness
- Strength of schedule and opponent offensive quality, which affects total points allowed regardless of defensive quality
- Mid-season roster moves, trades, or free-agent signings that could strengthen or weaken Miami's defense

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflteamdpts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflteamdpts

## License

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