# Will there be over 18.5 points scored

> Over 18.5 points scored leads at 90%, runner-up 90% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfltotal
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.745Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-17

## Headline

- Leader: Over 18.5 points scored at 90%
- Runner-up: Over 17.5 points scored at 90%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 points scored | 90¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-185-points-scored-over-185-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-19 |
| Over 17.5 points scored | 90¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-175-points-scored-over-175-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14tbnyj-18 |
| Over 16.5 points scored | 89¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-165-points-scored-over-165-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-17 |
| Over 19.5 points scored | 89¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-195-points-scored-over-195-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-20 |
| Over 22.5 points scored | 86¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-225-points-scored-over-225-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-23 |
| Over 21.5 points scored | 83¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-215-points-scored-over-215-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-22 |
| Over 24.5 points scored | 83¢ | +6pp | $762 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-245-points-scored-over-245-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-25 |
| Over 25.5 points scored | 80¢ | +5pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-255-points-scored-over-255-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-26 |
| Over 25.5 points scored | 80¢ | +9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-255-points-scored-over-255-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug15carbuf-26 |
| Over 28.5 points scored | 77¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-285-points-scored-over-285-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-29 |
| Over 26.5 points scored | 77¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-265-points-scored-over-265-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14tbnyj-27 |
| Over 45.5 points scored | 21¢ | — | $880 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-455-points-scored-over-455-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-46 |
| Over 49.5 points scored | 19¢ | −1pp | $769 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-495-points-scored-over-495-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-50 |
| Over 47.5 points scored | 18¢ | — | $941 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-475-points-scored-over-475-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14tbnyj-48 |
| Over 48.5 points scored | 16¢ | −3pp | $868 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-485-points-scored-over-485-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-49 |
| Over 52.5 points scored | 14¢ | −7pp | $811 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-525-points-scored-over-525-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-53 |
| Over 50.5 points scored | 13¢ | — | $732 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-505-points-scored-over-505-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14tbnyj-51 |
| Over 52.5 points scored | 12¢ | −13pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-525-points-scored-over-525-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug15carbuf-53 |
| Over 55.5 points scored | 12¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-555-points-scored-over-555-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14denatl-56 |
| Over 51.5 points scored | 11¢ | −5pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-over-515-points-scored-over-515-poin-kalshi-kxnfltotal-26aug14miawas-52 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Over 18.5 points scored | Over 17.5 points scored | Over 16.5 points scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 74 | 78 | 77 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 83 | 83 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Over 52.5 points scored −13pp 25→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Over 25.5 points scored +9pp 75→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Over 26.5 points scored +7pp 71→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Over 52.5 points scored −7pp 21→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Over 16.5 points scored +6pp 77→83¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 51% probability that a specific NFL game (Carolina vs. Arizona on August 6, 2026) will exceed 18.5 combined points. The contract pricing reveals sharp disagreement: while the over-18.5 line trades at just 13 cents, the over-35.5 line trades at 48 cents, suggesting traders view a low-scoring game as most likely. Score totals depend heavily on offensive execution, weather conditions, and defensive performance. The game resolves on August 6, 2026, when the final score is recorded. Current market liquidity is minimal (zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 threshold), indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The substantial gap between the 15.5-point threshold (13 cents) and 35.5-point threshold (48 cents) suggests the market clusters probability mass in the 16-35 point range, with the core uncertainty around whether the total lands above or below 18.5.

### Key factors

- The over-35.5 contract at 48 cents implies roughly 52% probability for totals exceeding 35.5 points, indicating most probability mass falls between 16-35 points rather than at extremes
- Zero 24-hour volume on the 18.5 line suggests sparse liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent information updates
- The implied probability of 51% for over-18.5 sits directly above the threshold, meaning traders assign near-equal odds to outcomes just above versus just below this boundary
- Week 4 preseason games typically feature younger roster players, reserve defenses, and limited offensive coordination compared to regular season, historically producing lower point totals
- Game resolution occurs August 6, 2026; no interim data releases or events will clarify expectations before market settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfltotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfltotal

## License

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