# Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded before Dec 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 17 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfltrade
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:52.149Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $85

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 15¢ | −1pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandon-aiyuk-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-bra-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-baiy |
| Kyler Murray | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyler-murray-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-kyle-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-kmur |
| Mac Jones | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mac-jones-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-mac-jon-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-mjon |
| A.J. Brown | 81¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-brown-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-aj-brown-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-abro |
| Keon Coleman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keon-coleman-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-keon-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-kcol |
| Jameis Winston | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jameis-winston-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-ja-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-jwin |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-b-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-btho |
| Joe Burrow | 8¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-joe-bu-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-jbur |
| Tee Higgins | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tee-higgins-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-tee-h-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-thig |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-jama-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-jcha |
| Maxx Crosby | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maxx-crosby-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-maxx-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-mcro |
| Ed Oliver | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-oliver-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-ed-oliv-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-eoli |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kayvon-thibodeaux-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-kthi |
| Stefon Diggs | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stefon-diggs-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-stef-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-sdig |
| Breece Hall | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-breece-hall-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-breec-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-bhal |
| Rashod Bateman | 13¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rashod-bateman-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-ra-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-rbat |
| Nick Herbig | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-herbig-be-traded-before-dec-1-2026-nick-kalshi-kxnfltrade-26dec01-nher |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 18 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 15 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Rashod Bateman +22pp 12→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Kayvon Thibodeaux −15pp 47→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Brandon Aiyuk −12pp 25→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Brandon Aiyuk +10pp 15→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Brandon Aiyuk +6pp 13→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 16% chance that Brian Thomas Jr., the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2024 first-round wide receiver, will be traded before December 1, 2026. At this probability level, the market suggests a trade is possible but unlikely during the next seven months. The estimate reflects Thomas's youth, injury concerns from his rookie season, and the Jaguars' current roster direction. A trade would most likely occur during the NFL offseason (now through mid-July) or at the August trade deadline, as teams rarely trade young receivers mid-season. Key catalysts include the Jaguars' draft decisions, coaching staff changes, or significant performance data from Thomas's 2026 training camp and preseason. The probability would rise if the team signals dissatisfaction or opens salary-cap space; it would fall if Thomas demonstrates health and on-field improvement.

### Key factors

- Thomas is entering only his second NFL season after being drafted sixth overall in 2024, making a trade within 18 months of draft day historically uncommon for first-round receivers
- The Jaguars drafted Thomas despite having Calvin Ridley at receiver, and have not signaled roster dissatisfaction with him through May 2026
- NFL trade deadlines (mid-July offseason, August preseason) provide defined windows when receiver trades typically occur, constraining the timeframe
- Thomas's 2026 training camp and preseason performance will likely be the most significant data point influencing trade speculation before December
- Active receiver trades involving young first-rounders occur infrequently relative to other positions, suggesting base-rate skepticism of a trade within this timeframe

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfltrade
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfltrade

## License

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