# Will Alec Pierce play in a Pro Football game in Week 1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 72% across 19 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflweekcompete
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.420Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-15

## Headline

- Probability: 72% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 56¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-jacobs-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-we-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-jjacobs8 |
| Luther Burden III | 84¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-luther-burden-iii-play-in-a-pro-football-game-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-lburden10 |
| Sam LaPorta | 74¢ | +3pp | $858 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-laporta-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-we-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-slaporta87 |
| George Kittle | 25¢ | −2pp | $798 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-kittle-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-gkittle85 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 91¢ | +5pp | $665 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-mccaffrey-play-in-a-pro-football-ga-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-cmccaffrey23 |
| Alec Pierce | 7¢ | −15pp | $642 | kalshi | /markets/will-alec-pierce-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-we-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-apierce14 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 65¢ | +1pp | $495 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiyah-love-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-jlove4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 87¢ | +22pp | $426 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-w-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-jchase1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 94¢ | +2pp | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-play-in-a-pro-football-game-i-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-pmahomes15 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 18¢ | ±0 | $288 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashton-jeanty-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-ajeanty2 |
| Vita Vea | 97¢ | +12pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-vita-vea-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-week-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-vvea50 |
| Malik Nabers | 85¢ | ±0 | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-nabers-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-w-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-mnabers1 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 86¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenyon-sadiq-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-w-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-ksadiq16 |
| Puka Nacua | 89¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-puka-nacua-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-wee-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-pnacua12 |
| Tyler Warren | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-warren-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-w-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-twarren84 |
| Makai Lemon | 89¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-makai-lemon-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-we-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-mlemon9 |
| Breece Hall | 94¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-breece-hall-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-we-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-bhall20 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chuba-hubbard-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-chubbard30 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 50¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emeka-egbuka-play-in-a-pro-football-game-in-w-kalshi-kxnflweekcompete-26w1-eegbuka2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 53 |
| 2026-08-13 | 40 |
| 2026-08-20 | 67 |
| 2026-08-27 | 49 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Makai Lemon +24pp 37→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Makai Lemon +24pp 61→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Josh Jacobs −23pp 80→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Ja'Marr Chase +22pp 64→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · George Kittle −21pp 39→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects an estimated 74% chance that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce will take the field during the team's first regular-season game in 2026. The probability sits between comparable high-confidence players like Mahomes (91%) and lower-confidence players like Vea (73%), suggesting moderate uncertainty about his availability. Factors driving this level include his current health status, depth chart positioning, and any injuries sustained during preseason. The contract will resolve once Week 1 games are played in early September 2026. The main catalyst determining the outcome will be the Colts' official game-day roster and inactives list released before kickoff, along with any injuries Pierce or competing receivers sustain during August preseason practices.

### Key factors

- Pierce's injury history and current physical condition heading into the 2026 preseason
- His position in the Colts' receiver depth chart relative to other available offensive weapons
- Whether the Colts face a favorable or challenging Week 1 opponent affecting roster management decisions
- Any significant injuries sustained during preseason games or practices in August 2026
- The team's offensive gameplan and expected usage patterns for wide receivers in their opening matchup

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflweekcompete
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflweekcompete

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