# Will the Carolina pro football team win at least 7 games this season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflwins
Updated: 2026-05-03T23:35:51.472Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ wins | 28¢ | −2pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minnesota-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27min-10 |
| 5+ wins | 42¢ | +2pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-pro-football-team-win-at-least-5-ga-kalshi-kxnflwins-27mia-5 |
| 10+ wins | 50¢ | +8pp | $162 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cincinnati-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27cin-10 |
| 10+ wins | 46¢ | −1pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-denver-pro-football-team-win-at-least-10-kalshi-kxnflwins-27den-10 |
| 10+ wins | 13¢ | ±0 | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-g-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27nyg-10 |
| 5+ wins | 20¢ | +5pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-arizona-pro-football-team-win-at-least-5-kalshi-kxnflwins-27ari-5 |
| 11+ wins | 32¢ | +1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-11 |
| 8+ wins | 56¢ | +16pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27was-8 |
| 10+ wins | 40¢ | −7pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-jacksonville-pro-football-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnflwins-27jac-10 |
| 9+ wins | 52¢ | +8pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minnesota-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27min-9 |
| 10+ wins | 22¢ | +8pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-10 |
| 10+ wins | 13¢ | +2pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27was-10 |
| 12+ wins | 16¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-seattle-pro-football-team-win-at-least-12-kalshi-kxnflwins-27sea-12 |
| 11+ wins | 32¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-pro-football-team-win-at-lea-kalshi-kxnflwins-27phi-11 |
| 9+ wins | 35¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-9 |
| 10+ wins | 10¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cleveland-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27cle-10 |
| 5+ wins | 61¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-las-vegas-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27lv-5 |
| 9+ wins | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27was-9 |
| 8+ wins | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-las-vegas-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27lv-8 |
| 11+ wins | 47¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-francisco-pro-football-team-win-at-le-kalshi-kxnflwins-27sf-11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 50 |
| 2026-04-26 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · 5+ wins −42pp 50→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · 10+ wins −31pp 51→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · 9+ wins +30pp 3→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · 9+ wins +21pp 13→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · 5+ wins +16pp 31→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market indicates a 40% probability that Carolina wins at least 7 games in the 2026 pro football season. The current level reflects mixed assessments of the team's roster strength and competitive position. Win totals hinge on offensive consistency, injury management, and schedule difficulty—factors that become clearer as the season progresses. The probability will face its most significant test starting with Carolina's opening game in September 2026, when actual performance data begins accumulating and early-season results either validate or contradict preseason expectations.

### Key factors

- Carolina's preseason roster composition compared to divisional competitors, particularly NFC South teams currently considered stronger
- Historical performance trends of Carolina's coaching staff and quarterback depth chart in win-probability forecasting models
- Schedule strength relative to overall league difficulty, including number of games against playoff-caliber opponents
- Injury history patterns for key Carolina offensive and defensive personnel entering the 2026 season
- Market pricing on related contracts shows Carolina division championship at 20¢, suggesting underlying skepticism about team competitiveness

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflwins

## License

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