# Will Green Bay win at least 2 games in the first 4 weeks

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 19 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflwinsweek
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.979Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks | 50¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-win-at-least-2-games-in-the-first-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-no2 |
| Detroit: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 10¢ | −17pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-w-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-det3 |
| Chicago: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 7¢ | −11pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-w-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-chi3 |
| Las Vegas: 3+ wins in first 8 weeks | 50¢ | +2pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-8-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w8-lv3 |
| Las Vegas: 2+ wins in first 8 weeks | 74¢ | +1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-win-at-least-2-games-in-the-first-8-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w8-lv2 |
| Houston: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 25¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-w-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-hou3 |
| Buffalo: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 47¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-w-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-buf3 |
| Green Bay: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 52¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-gb3 |
| Baltimore: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks | 51¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-4-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-bal3 |
| Cleveland: 4+ wins in first 12 weeks | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-at-least-4-games-in-the-first-1-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-cle4 |
| Denver: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-win-at-least-2-games-in-the-first-4-we-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-den2 |
| Detroit: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-at-least-8-games-in-the-first-12-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-det8 |
| Arizona: 1+ wins in first 4 weeks | 54¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-1-game-in-the-first-4-we-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-ari1 |
| Cleveland: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-at-least-2-games-in-the-first-4-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w4-cle2 |
| Pittsburgh: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-win-at-least-7-games-in-the-first-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-pit7 |
| Indianapolis: 4+ wins in first 8 weeks | 55¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indianapolis-win-at-least-4-games-in-the-firs-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w8-ind4 |
| Arizona: 1+ wins in first 12 weeks | 89¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-1-game-in-the-first-12-w-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-ari1 |
| Arizona: 2+ wins in first 12 weeks | 70¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-2-games-in-the-first-12-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-ari2 |
| Arizona: 3+ wins in first 12 weeks | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-at-least-3-games-in-the-first-12-kalshi-kxnflwinsweek-26w12-ari3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 54 |
| 2026-08-13 | 50 |
| 2026-08-20 | 49 |
| 2026-08-27 | 53 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Arizona: 2+ wins in first 12 weeks +20pp 45→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Denver: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks −19pp 72→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Detroit: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks −17pp 49→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Arizona: 2+ wins in first 12 weeks −17pp 62→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Houston: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks +12pp 25→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the Green Bay Packers will win at least 2 games during weeks 1-4 of the 2026 NFL season. At 55%, the market reflects slightly better-than-even odds. The probability depends primarily on the team's roster composition, starting quarterback health, and the strength of their opening schedule opponents. Key unknowns include whether the Packers have made significant offseason improvements, how their defense performs early in the season, and whether key players avoid injury during this stretch. The contract will be decided by the official results of Green Bay's first four games, which will conclude in late September 2026.

### Key factors

- Packers' starting quarterback status and performance level entering the season; injury or decline would substantially lower win probability
- Quality of opening schedule opponents in weeks 1-4; strength of schedule directly impacts win probability
- Offensive line health and effectiveness; line stability is critical for any offense functioning in early season
- Defensive performance metrics in first four weeks, particularly against pass-heavy offenses in the early schedule
- Prior season trajectory; 2025 regular season results would indicate offensive and defensive capability heading into 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflwinsweek
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflwinsweek

## License

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