# Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 60

> Above 60 leads at 71%, runner-up 9% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflxapp
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.731Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 60 at 71%
- Runner-up: Above 70 at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $89

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 71¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-netflix-app-downloads-for-august-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxnflxapp-26sep07-t60 |
| Above 70 | 9¢ | −3pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-netflix-app-downloads-for-august-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxnflxapp-26sep07-t70 |
| Above 90 | 5¢ | +1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-netflix-app-downloads-for-august-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxnflxapp-26sep07-t90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 60 | Above 70 | Above 90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | — | 33 | 29 |
| 2026-08-11 | 64 | 23 | 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | 69 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | 71 | 17 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 53 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | 42 | 11 | — |
| 2026-08-26 | 42 | 11 | 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | 71 | 8 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Above 60 +29pp 42→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Above 60 +29pp 42→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 60 −26pp 79→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 60 −11pp 53→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Above 60 −11pp 53→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 67% probability that Netflix app downloads in August 2026 will exceed 60 million, reflecting trader expectations that the streaming platform will maintain substantial user acquisition despite a mature market. The high probability suggests confidence in Netflix's ability to reach this threshold, though the distribution across higher outcomes (above 70, 80, or 90 million) shows meaningful uncertainty about the magnitude of downloads. Key drivers include competitive dynamics with other streaming services, seasonal viewing patterns in summer, and any new content releases or pricing changes Netflix implements during the month. Resolution depends on Netflix reporting official download figures for August 2026, typically disclosed in quarterly earnings reports or investor communications. The concentration of trading volume in the base 60-million contract versus higher tiers indicates traders see meaningful downside risk, despite the favored outcome.

### Key factors

- Netflix's historical August download patterns and year-over-year growth rates in mobile user acquisition
- Competitive pressures from Disney+, Amazon Prime, and other platforms affecting net new downloads during the month
- Timing and quality of content releases in August 2026, which directly influence new sign-ups and reinstalls
- Pricing changes, promotional offers, or crackdowns on account sharing that would increase or suppress new downloads
- Availability and reliability of official download metrics from Netflix's August 2026 earnings disclosure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflxapp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflxapp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.