# Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027

> $4.01 or above leads at 93%, runner-up 62% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngasmax
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.427Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $4.01 or above at 93%
- Runner-up: $6.01 or above at 62%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.01 or above | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-get-above-400-per-mi-kalshi-kxngasmax-26dec31-p4.00 |
| $6.01 or above | 62¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-get-above-600-per-mi-kalshi-kxngasmax-26dec31-p6.00 |
| $6.51 or above | 44¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-get-above-650-per-mi-kalshi-kxngasmax-26dec31-p6.50 |
| $7.01 or above | 39¢ | −2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-get-above-700-per-mi-kalshi-kxngasmax-26dec31-p7.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $6.01 or above | $6.51 or above | $7.01 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 45 |
| 2026-04-10 | 62 | — | 47 |
| 2026-04-15 | 59 | 53 | 48 |
| 2026-04-25 | 6 | 65 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 | 69 | 30 |
| 2026-04-30 | 50 | 29 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 58 | 44 | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | 64 | — | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $6.01 or above +37pp 21→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · $6.51 or above +15pp 29→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · $7.01 or above +11pp 30→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · $6.01 or above +11pp 10→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · $6.01 or above +6pp 58→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects traders' assessment that natural gas will exceed $6.00 per million BTU at some point between now and December 31, 2026. The 93% probability is driven by current pricing around $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu and the seven-month window available for a near-doubling of prices. Natural gas markets respond sharply to supply disruptions, demand spikes from extreme weather, and inventory levels reported weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The critical factor determining whether this threshold is reached will be whether a significant supply shock (production outage, pipeline disruption, or extreme cold snap) occurs during the Northern Hemisphere winter season ahead. Near-term prices remain range-bound, but the large probability gap suggests markets are pricing in a meaningful tail risk of such disruption over the next 31 weeks.

### Key factors

- Current natural gas spot prices trade $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu, requiring a 100%+ price increase to reach $6.00 within 240 days
- Weekly EIA inventory reports and monthly production data will establish supply cushions; a multi-week draw or production failure could trigger rapid repricing upward
- Historical natural gas volatility exceeds 30% annually; price swings of 50%+ in 2–4 week windows have occurred during supply disruptions or winter demand peaks
- Winter 2026–27 demand intensity depends on heating-season temperature anomalies and LNG export capacity utilization; both remain uncertain until Q4 2026
- The three leading Kalshi contracts price much lower probabilities ($0.05–$0.16) for near-term thresholds ($3.10–$3.40 by early May), suggesting most upside probability mass is weighted to Q4 2026 events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngasmax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ngasmax

## License

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