# Will the price of natural gas get below $1.60 per million BTU before January 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngasmin
Updated: 2026-05-03T09:05:27.015Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.79 or below | 97¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-get-below-180-per-mi-kalshi-kxngasmin-26dec31-n1.80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 43 |
| 2026-04-16 | 30 |
| 2026-04-25 | 2 |
| 2026-05-03 | 50 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · $1.79 or below +28pp 22→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · $1.79 or below +20pp 2→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 97% probability that natural gas will trade below $1.60 per million BTU at some point before the end of 2026, down from recent levels near $2.75–$3.40. This reflects expectations of continued supply growth, moderating demand, and seasonal normalization over the next seven months. The main drivers are weather patterns (cooling demand typically falls in summer), production levels from U.S. shale basins, and global LNG export capacity. A major winter supply disruption, geopolitical event affecting exports, or sharply colder-than-normal forecasts could reduce this probability, while a warm summer or production surge would reinforce it. The next key data points include weekly inventory reports and forward-looking demand estimates through summer 2026.

### Key factors

- Natural gas prices have ranged $2.75–$3.40 in early May 2026; reaching $1.60 requires a 40–50% decline from current levels over seven months
- U.S. production trends and LNG export utilization directly affect supply; higher production or reduced export demand would push prices lower
- Summer cooling season (June–August) typically reduces heating demand, creating downward price pressure; this seasonal effect is already partially priced in
- Storage injection levels and inventory builds during lower-demand months will constrain winter supply risk, a key factor supporting the 97% probability
- Geopolitical disruptions to global LNG supply or unexpected cold-season demand spikes remain the primary tail risks that could prevent sub-$1.60 prices

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngasmin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ngasmin

## License

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