# Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q1 2026

> Above 2.0% leads at 22%, runner-up 21% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngdpq
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.071Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.0% at 22%
- Runner-up: Above 1.5% at 21%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $300

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.0% | 22¢ | +4pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-nominal-us-gdp-growth-be-above-20-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxngdpq-26q2-c2.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 21¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nominal-us-gdp-growth-be-above-15-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxngdpq-26q2-c1.5 |
| Above 0.5% | 10¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nominal-us-gdp-growth-be-above-05-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxngdpq-26q2-c0.5 |
| Above 2.5% | 5¢ | +1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-nominal-us-gdp-growth-be-above-25-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxngdpq-26q2-c2.5 |
| Above 1.0% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nominal-us-gdp-growth-be-above-10-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxngdpq-26q2-c1.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.0% | Above 1.5% | Above 0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 12 | 40 | 19 |
| 2026-05-29 | 13 | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 16 | 50 | 32 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 48 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 17 | 49 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 17 | 44 | 25 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18 | 21 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 1.5% −23pp 44→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 1.0% −20pp 21→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 0.5% −17pp 25→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 2.0% +4pp 18→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction reflects market expectations that U.S. nominal GDP growth will exceed 1.5% annualized in the second quarter of 2026. The 92% probability indicates confidence in at least modest growth, though the spread across contracts reveals uncertainty about the magnitude. Markets are pricing in resilience despite potential headwinds like higher interest rates or labor market softening, but also acknowledging meaningful downside risks below 1.5%—reflected in the 49% probability for above-1.5% growth specifically. The official GDP estimate for Q2 2026, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late July 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Current positioning suggests traders expect growth to land between 1.0% and 1.5%, favoring the lower-bound outcome over stronger performance.

### Key factors

- Nominal GDP growth depends on both real GDP growth and inflation rates; a combination of modest real growth (1-2%) and stable inflation (2-3%) would support outcomes near 1.5%
- Labor market strength or weakness directly affects consumer spending and wage growth, with employment data and wage trends in Q2 acting as leading indicators
- Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory through mid-2026 shape both growth expectations and nominal adjustments; any significant rate changes would alter growth forecasts
- The contract pricing spread (92% above 0.5%, 49% above 1.5%) suggests traders view sub-1.5% but above-1.0% growth as the modal outcome
- Historical quarterly nominal GDP has averaged 2.5-3.0% recently; achieving only 1.5% would represent material deceleration requiring specific economic headwinds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ngdpq
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ngdpq
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.