# What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026

> Chicago leads at 30%, runner-up 30% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nguardcity
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:52.015Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Chicago at 30%
- Runner-up: Detroit at 30%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-chi |
| Detroit | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-det |
| Houston | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-hou |
| Portland | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-por |
| San Francisco | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-sf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chicago | Detroit | Houston |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 31 | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 26 | 26 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 30 | — | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | — | — | 25 |
| 2026-04-21 | — | — | 24 |
| 2026-04-22 | 26 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 30 | — | 25 |
| 2026-04-28 | 31 | 27 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 28 | 29 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | — | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Chicago −3pp 31→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 30% probability that Trump will deploy the National Guard to at least one U.S. city during 2026. The market is pricing this as an uncommon but meaningful outcome. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Trump administration policies will prioritize National Guard deployments for domestic purposes, potentially in response to public safety concerns or civil unrest. Key drivers include the administration's approach to domestic security priorities and whether conditions emerge that officials believe warrant deployment. Resolution depends on whether any official National Guard activation for domestic purposes occurs in any U.S. city by December 31, 2026. The tight clustering of prices near 30% suggests limited consensus on likelihood.

### Key factors

- Trump administration's stated domestic security priorities and operational doctrine for National Guard deployment compared to precedent
- Occurrence and severity of any public safety incidents, civil unrest, or emergencies in U.S. cities that could trigger deployment consideration
- Legal and political constraints, including Posse Comitatus Act limitations and congressional dynamics that would affect deployment decisions
- Historical frequency of domestic National Guard deployments during comparable periods to establish baseline expectations
- Contracts currently tied between multiple outcomes at 30%, indicating market uncertainty rather than strong conviction in any single deployment outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nguardcity
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nguardcity
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.