# Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nh1d
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.038Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $483

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Sullivan | 23¢ | +4pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/will-maura-sullivan-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxnh1d-26-msul |
| Stefany Shaheen | 77¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxnh1d-26-ssha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 59 |
| 2026-06-12 | 77 |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 |
| 2026-06-26 | 50 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Maura Sullivan +4pp 19→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Maura Sullivan +3pp 15→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Stefany Shaheen −3pp 77→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Stefany Shaheen +3pp 74→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Stefany Shaheen will secure the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. At 30%, the market is pricing in meaningful competition for the seat, suggesting no clear frontrunner has emerged. The incumbent's track record, previous election performance, and primary opposition from other Democrats are central factors affecting this estimate. The nomination will likely be determined by candidate filing deadlines and the primary election itself, typically held in autumn of even-numbered years. Market movement would depend on whether Shaheen formally announces candidacy, faces significant primary challengers, or experiences shifts in district-level Democratic sentiment.

### Key factors

- Whether Stefany Shaheen announces official candidacy and commits campaign resources to the race
- Primary field composition: the number and profile of competing Democratic candidates seeking the nomination
- Historical primary performance data: Shaheen's vote share in previous Democratic primaries for this or related seats
- Filing deadline date for the 2026 general election cycle and any candidate announcements before that cutoff
- Local polling or endorsement patterns from New Hampshire Democratic Party officials that indicate relative candidate strength

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nh1d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nh1d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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