# NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl-frank-j-selke-trophy-winner
Updated: 2026-06-06T19:20:12.995Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 96¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-frank-j-selke-trophy-winner-nick-suzuki-polymarket-0x623c8f041bd0795ec5c3a5ad89bf8c57ae7acf96a53718236a4072982c5ad279 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 93 |
| 2026-05-25 | 94 |
| 2026-06-01 | 97 |
| 2026-06-05 | 93 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Nick Suzuki −4pp 97→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Nick Suzuki +3pp 94→97¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 90% probability indicates markets view Nick Suzuki as the heavily favored winner of the NHL's Frank J. Selke Trophy, awarded annually to the league's best defensive forward. The current market level reflects Suzuki's consistent two-way performance and reputation for defensive excellence throughout the 2025-26 season. The probability would move if competing forwards—particularly those with stronger playoff performances or late-season statistical surges—demonstrate measurable improvements in defensive metrics like plus-minus, takeaways, or penalty differential. The trophy winner will be determined in June 2026 when the NHL announces the award, with voting typically completed shortly after the regular season ends. Key factors analysts monitor include final-season defensive statistics across contenders, playoff performance visibility, voting patterns from previous years, and any injuries or performance changes in the final weeks of competition.

### Key factors

- Nick Suzuki's defensive rating and plus-minus relative to other top forward candidates in the final standings
- Playoff performance and visibility for Suzuki versus other Selke contenders through June
- Historical voting patterns showing whether voters favor statistical dominance or narrative/positional prestige
- Injury status or late-season performance changes for Suzuki or other shortlist-caliber forwards
- The margin between Suzuki (90%) and runner-up (7%) suggests concentrated confidence rather than genuine competitive uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhl-frank-j-selke-trophy-winner

## License

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