# NHL Playoffs

> Team to advance to Conference Finals: Carolina Hurricanes leads at 97%, runner-up 87% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl-playoffs
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.182Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Leader: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Carolina Hurricanes at 97%
- Runner-up: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche at 87%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $838

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Carolina Hurricanes | 97¢ | +1pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0x5ec3bb46e053b79adfee821e6e56e9c038e2cfb1783671f95e706b320258aec7 |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche | 87¢ | −1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0x6dc73a13ba8f75616cb3922fccced21cd78228e0f86bb5d78f75ad7153d76f9e |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights | 78¢ | +20pp | $271 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0xcb53eb5d2c4a9f44d42c368f7054791f18cde90abb044ff216f83ca0be98aafd |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens | 50¢ | +9pp | $232 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0xc3d60deb51529933a3453840e4feb17282f93078f189e9b56a15b8e2560e6000 |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Buffalo Sabres | 50¢ | −17pp | $212 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0x17c16912a7c44988beb88d9482b7ad280696263a96e716aaf92b4f7269632cad |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Anaheim Ducks | 49¢ | −1pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0xda518cd6d24fb992cd6a2a1414e06257199e6c2cc3495cc4e092b33953864c29 |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Minnesota Wild | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0x40deef3085af93bb0e9f0c3796b3e5c276f4c655803644c053d6b40f840fe4b5 |
| Team to advance to Conference Finals: Philadelphia Flyers | 4¢ | −1pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-playoffs-team-to-advance-to-conference-finals-polymarket-0x52229062cc30ca7beba8461a56c002c151a8a9ea52142ca87b33d6c08b3ae554 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Team to advance to Conference Finals: Carolina Hurricanes | Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche | Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | — | 88 | 58 |
| 2026-05-08 | 97 | 87 | 58 |
| 2026-05-09 | 98 | — | 78 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights +20pp 58→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens +17pp 34→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Team to advance to Conference Finals: Buffalo Sabres −17pp 66→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Team to advance to Conference Finals: Anaheim Ducks +12pp 41→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens +9pp 51→60¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the aggregate view that the Carolina Hurricanes have a 97% chance of advancing to the Conference Finals in the current playoff round. The high probability reflects market confidence in their playoff position and performance relative to remaining opponents in their bracket. Key drivers include team health, recent performance trajectories, and matchup dynamics against potential second-round adversaries. The resolution hinges on the outcome of remaining playoff games in the Eastern Conference, which will occur over the next 1–3 weeks depending on series length and scheduling. Buffalo (67¢) and Colorado (88¢) are the next most-favored candidates, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains despite Carolina's dominant pricing.

### Key factors

- Carolina's current playoff seeding and remaining opponents relative to other Eastern Conference teams
- Injury status of key players on Carolina and competing teams heading into each game
- Head-to-head historical performance and recent regular-season matchup results between Carolina and potential second-round opponents
- Buffalo's contract price (67¢) indicates material probability of upset; the gap between Buffalo and Carolina pricing suggests market assigns specific risk to that matchup
- Volume concentration ($82 on Carolina vs. $435 on Buffalo) shows lower trading activity on the frontrunner, potentially reflecting reduced hedging or arbitrage activity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl-playoffs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhl-playoffs

## License

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