# NHL Vezina Trophy Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl-vezina-trophy-winner
Updated: 2026-06-07T19:20:13.790Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Jeremy Swayman at 4%
- Runner-up: Ilya Sorokin at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $562

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman | 4¢ | ±0 | $126 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-vezina-trophy-winner-jeremy-swayman-polymarket-0x6b9c0d842abd2004f59b03c93b566123ee4b6a81d940cf2c6d268e4fa9c37a8b |
| Ilya Sorokin | 3¢ | −2pp | $436 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-vezina-trophy-winner-ilya-sorokin-polymarket-0x53f5957885fd35f4f5e6c57ca31f8848bfe3a79869bb4300f03f15bd4716e871 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jeremy Swayman | Ilya Sorokin |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | 8 | 3 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-06-06 | 4 | 2 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 89% probability reflects market confidence that Ilya Sorokin will win the 2026 NHL Vezina Trophy, awarded to the league's best goaltender. This high likelihood is driven by Sorokin's recent performance metrics and likely reflects strong regular-season statistics through early May 2026. The probability could shift if a competing goaltender demonstrates superior save percentage, goals-against average, or wins down the stretch, or if Sorokin experiences injury or decline. The Vezina winner is typically announced in June following the regular season conclusion, making upcoming playoff performance and final-season statistics the primary catalyst for resolving this market. Trading volume remains relatively modest across contracts, suggesting limited recent conviction changes among market participants.

### Key factors

- Sorokin's save percentage and goals-against average compared to other top candidates through the 2025-26 regular season
- Number of wins and games played by Sorokin versus competing goaltenders—durability is historically weighted in Vezina voting
- Late-season injury or performance decline for Sorokin or emergence of an alternative candidate with superior statistical case
- Playoff performance of Sorokin's team and whether he maintains elite metrics through June
- Historical voting patterns of the professional voters who determine the award, which sometimes diverge from raw statistics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl-vezina-trophy-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhl-vezina-trophy-winner

## License

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