# Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 13 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.320Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 16% / Polymarket 29% — 13pp spread
- 24h volume: $429K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 34¢ | +2pp | $120K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-the-2025-26-stanley-c-kalshi-kxnhl-26-car |
| Buffalo Sabres | 6¢ | +2pp | $107K | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-sabres-win-the-2025-26-stanley-cup-fi-kalshi-kxnhl-26-buf |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3¢ | +1pp | $87K | kalshi | /markets/will-anaheim-ducks-win-the-2025-26-stanley-cup-fin-kalshi-kxnhl-26-ana |
| Colorado Avalanche | 38¢ | +1pp | $55K | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-avalanche-win-the-2025-26-stanley-cu-kalshi-kxnhl-26-col |
| Montréal Canadiens | 5¢ | −1pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/will-montral-canadiens-win-the-2025-26-stanley-cup-kalshi-kxnhl-26-mtl |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 12¢ | −4pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-vegas-golden-knights-win-the-2025-26-stanley-kalshi-kxnhl-26-vgk |
| Western Conference Champion: Colorado Avalanche | 65¢ | +3pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/nhl-western-conference-champion-colorado-avalanche-polymarket-0xba42f1028728b587bb3620802fc08afb99e8370f26f21e8f61931065d5ceb84e |
| Western Conference Champion: Anaheim Ducks | 8¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/nhl-western-conference-champion-anaheim-ducks-polymarket-0xc6fc402e315e578608ba2b304a07b5ea7bd54d07915a38944121ac724aef3209 |
| Eastern Conference Champion: Carolina Hurricanes | 66¢ | +1pp | $708 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-eastern-conference-champion-carolina-hurricane-polymarket-0xd50349a2c87d5a64128c40574f310f60a130d8aaf955bd3d3d69aab62b1df539 |
| Eastern Conference Champion: Buffalo Sabres | 20¢ | −1pp | $656 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-eastern-conference-champion-buffalo-sabres-polymarket-0x8e22889f3cf294f483a518d61ea2aad40ee79f8be39e7a2da1858daa7b4c8e68 |
| Eastern Conference Champion: Montreal Canadiens | 16¢ | −5pp | $418 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-eastern-conference-champion-montreal-canadiens-polymarket-0x452f9e53cec1846bd092436b33613c64bcb03cc23e46554c3d163de39b309c52 |
| Western Conference Champion: Minnesota Wild | 5¢ | +1pp | $142 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-western-conference-champion-minnesota-wild-polymarket-0x7de38ef42d9fd4add28c1de1e018518b9a046c602c8cb52760f13ffd518bf0ac |
| Western Conference Champion: Vegas Golden Knights | 25¢ | −6pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/nhl-western-conference-champion-vegas-golden-knigh-polymarket-0x46d52281bbeedf8c99ec45497fda69f9815160cf3c97c48a4f41ab4ecdd11d7e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Western Conference Champion: Colorado Avalanche +15pp 49→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Western Conference Champion: Minnesota Wild −14pp 20→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Eastern Conference Champion: Carolina Hurricanes +12pp 51→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Colorado Avalanche +7pp 31→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Carolina Hurricanes +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 16% probability reflects market expectations that the Montréal Canadiens have a roughly 1-in-6 chance of winning the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals. The market prices them below several competing teams—Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild both trade at 9 cents, while Colorado Avalanche trades substantially higher at 31 cents—suggesting skepticism about Montreal's current roster competitiveness. The Canadiens' probability is driven by their recent regular-season performance, roster depth, and playoff track record relative to other Eastern Conference contenders. Key uncertainties include whether recent trades or draft picks materially strengthen the roster before next season and how the team performs through the 2025-26 regular season. The Stanley Cup Finals themselves, scheduled for June 2026, will resolve this contract, but regular-season standings and playoff seeding emerging through April 2026 will likely compress uncertainty significantly beforehand.

### Key factors

- Montréal finished the 2024-25 season and entered the 2025-26 season; their regular-season win-loss record and playoff position as of May 2026 directly correlate to Finals probability
- Trading activity volume for Canadiens contracts versus competitor contracts (Colorado at 31¢ has 6× higher 24h volume than the Avalanche contract) indicates relative market conviction
- The 7-percentage-point spread between Kalshi (12%) and Polymarket (19%) suggests venue-specific trader disagreement on Canadiens odds that has not yet arbitraged away
- Recent roster moves, injuries to key players, or goaltender performance during the 2025-26 season would directly shift odds
- Playoff seeding and head-to-head matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals (scheduled for May-June 2026) represent the immediate catalyst determining Finals appearance likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.