# Who will win Calder Memorial Trophy

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlcalder
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.934Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $119

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov | 3¢ | −4pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-calder-memorial-trophy-ivan-demidov-kalshi-kxnhlcalder-26-idem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 1 |
| 2026-04-29 | 14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Ivan Demidov −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

At 5%, the current leader has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the Calder Memorial Trophy, based on Kalshi contract pricing. The Calder, awarded annually to the NHL's top rookie, typically favors players on playoff teams with strong offensive or defensive production through the regular season. The probability reflects assessments of remaining games and final statistics before the award announcement, likely in June 2026. Factors affecting this level include the player's team's playoff success, individual performance trajectory in remaining games, and how voters weight offensive versus defensive contributions. The award will be decided by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association vote following the season's conclusion, making roster performance and narrative momentum in the final weeks significant drivers of perception.

### Key factors

- Player's remaining regular-season performance and games played relative to other rookie contenders
- Team playoff qualification and performance, as voters often favor rookies on successful franchises
- Head-to-head statistical comparison with other leading candidates in goals, assists, and defensive metrics
- Voting patterns of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association regarding positional weight and narrative momentum
- Injury risk or playing-time changes for the contract leader versus competing rookies in the final stretch

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlcalder
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlcalder

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.