# Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 4 contracts — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlcentral
Updated: 2026-09-24T03:20:51.557Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-01

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Mammoth | 9¢ | ±0 | $943 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-utah-mammoth-win-the-central-division-uta-kalshi-kxnhlcentral-27-uta |
| Minnesota Wild | 23¢ | — | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minnesota-wild-win-the-central-division-m-kalshi-kxnhlcentral-27-min |
| Colorado Avalanche | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-colorado-avalanche-win-the-central-divisi-kalshi-kxnhlcentral-27-col |
| Dallas Stars | 18¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-dallas-stars-win-the-central-division-dal-kalshi-kxnhlcentral-27-dal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | 32 |
| 2026-09-06 | 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | 35 |
| 2026-09-19 | 34 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Colorado Avalanche +3pp 32→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 21% probability indicates that markets assess the Colorado Avalanche as an underdog to win the Central Division in the 2026-27 NHL season. The Avalanche face competition from stronger-favored teams, particularly the Minnesota Wild (23%) and Dallas Stars (17%), suggesting market participants view their roster composition or recent performance as less competitive than alternatives in the division. The probability could shift based on roster moves during the offseason, injury developments to key players, and early regular-season performance once games begin in October 2026. Major catalysts include the completion of training camps and preseason exhibitions, which typically provide indicators of team readiness and form heading into the regular season.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head roster strength comparison: Analyzing salary cap allocation, recent acquisitions, and player age/performance trends relative to division rivals
- Injury status of star players: Availability of Colorado's top-performing skaters and goaltender entering the 2026-27 season
- Playoff history and momentum: Division winners' past performance in comparable recent seasons and playoff success
- Trading deadline and offseason activity: Magnitude of roster changes made by Colorado versus division competitors
- Early season win-loss record: October and November performance relative to projections once regular season games commence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlcentral
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlcentral

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.