# Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 13 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhldraftpick
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.839Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-04

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna | 74¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-mckenna-be-picked-1st-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-1-gmck |
| Gavin McKenna | 5¢ | +2pp | $268 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-mckenna-be-picked-3rd-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-3-gmck |
| Caleb Malhotra | 4¢ | — | $260 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-malhotra-be-picked-2nd-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-2-cmal |
| Ivar Stenberg | 54¢ | +1pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivar-stenberg-be-picked-2nd-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-2-iste |
| Caleb Malhotra | 19¢ | ±0 | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-malhotra-be-picked-3rd-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-3-cmal |
| Chase Reid | 5¢ | ±0 | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-reid-be-picked-1st-in-the-nhl-draft-cha-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-1-crei |
| Keaton Verhoeff | 6¢ | — | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-keaton-verhoeff-be-picked-1st-in-the-nhl-draf-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-1-kver |
| Chase Reid | 13¢ | −1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-reid-be-picked-2nd-in-the-nhl-draft-cha-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-2-crei |
| Ivar Stenberg | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivar-stenberg-be-picked-5th-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-5-iste |
| Keaton Verhoeff | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keaton-verhoeff-be-picked-5th-in-the-nhl-draf-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-5-kver |
| Caleb Malhotra | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-malhotra-be-picked-5th-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-5-cmal |
| Carson Carels | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-carels-be-picked-5th-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-5-ccar |
| Alberts Smits | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alberts-smits-be-picked-5th-in-the-nhl-draft-kalshi-kxnhldraftpick-26-5-asmi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 34 |
| 2026-05-08 | 22 |
| 2026-05-09 | 28 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Gavin McKenna +14pp 62→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ivar Stenberg +6pp 49→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Gavin McKenna −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Gavin McKenna −3pp 76→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Caleb Malhotra +3pp 16→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 18% chance that Chase Reid will be selected 3rd overall in the NHL Draft. The probability reflects that Reid is considered a prospect in contention for an early first-round pick, but not the consensus third choice among NHL scouts and teams. The main factors supporting this probability are Reid's current standing in various pre-draft rankings and his performance metrics relative to other top prospects. The probability could shift based on changes in Reid's play, injuries to competing prospects, or new information from team scouts. The NHL Draft itself will resolve this contract, typically held in late June, which is when the actual draft order and selections occur. Until then, the market price reflects aggregated expectations about how teams will rank Reid among the available pool of elite prospects.

### Key factors

- Chase Reid's current ranking in major pre-draft consensus boards (NHL.com, aggregated scouts) relative to other top-3 candidates
- Reported interest from teams picking in the 3rd position, which can shift based on pro days, interviews, and private workouts
- Recent performance in league play or playoff tournaments that might impact his evaluation among scouts
- Injury status or any off-ice factors that could affect his draft position
- Competitor prospects' recent performances and trajectory changes that might alter the 3rd overall selection calculus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhldraftpick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhldraftpick

## License

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