# Artemi Panarin

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlfirstgoal
Updated: 2026-05-07T18:50:43.830Z
Category: general
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Goalscorer: Pavel Dorofeyev | 3¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/pavel-dorofeyev-first-goalscorer-pavel-dorofeyev-kalshi-kxnhlfirstgoal-26may06anavgk-vgkpdorofeyev16 |
| First Goalscorer: Mitch Marner | 3¢ | — | $810 | kalshi | /markets/mitch-marner-first-goalscorer-mitch-marner-kalshi-kxnhlfirstgoal-26may06anavgk-vgkmmarner93 |
| First Goalscorer: Ivan Barbashev | 3¢ | — | $425 | kalshi | /markets/ivan-barbashev-first-goalscorer-ivan-barbashev-kalshi-kxnhlfirstgoal-26may06anavgk-vgkibarbashev49 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 3 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 3% probability reflects the chance that Artemi Panarin will experience a significant career disruption or departure from professional hockey by a specified date. The low probability indicates strong consensus that Panarin will continue playing at his current level without major interruption. The main factors keeping this probability low are his established NHL status, recent contract stability, and lack of reported health or personal issues that would typically trigger such events. Upward pressure would come from serious injuries, unexpected retirement, or major personal circumstances. The resolution will depend on whether Panarin completes his current contract term and remains active in professional play, with clarity typically emerging through the NHL season and any off-season developments affecting his playing status or roster positioning.

### Key factors

- Panarin's current contract status and expiration date determine the specific time window for this prediction
- Significant injuries or health emergencies would be the primary mechanism pushing this probability higher
- Trade activity or roster moves involving Panarin would immediately affect market pricing and represent concrete, observable data
- His performance metrics and playing time over the relevant period provide measurable evidence of continued professional engagement
- Age and career arc relative to typical NHL player timelines serve as baseline historical reference points

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlfirstgoal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlfirstgoal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.