# Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy

> Connor McDavid leads at 52%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlhart
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.378Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Connor McDavid at 52%
- Runner-up: Nikita Kucherov at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 52¢ | +4pp | $661 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-hart-memorial-trophy-connor-mcdavid-kalshi-kxnhlhart-26-cmcd |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35¢ | ±0 | $874 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-hart-memorial-trophy-nikita-kucherov-kalshi-kxnhlhart-26-kkuc |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 3¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-hart-memorial-trophy-nathan-mackinnon-kalshi-kxnhlhart-26-nmac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Connor McDavid | Nikita Kucherov | Nathan MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 26 | 26 | 39 |
| 2026-04-25 | 38 | 44 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 | 33 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 44 | 36 | 8 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Connor McDavid −23pp 53→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Connor McDavid +17pp 30→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Connor McDavid −7pp 47→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Nathan MacKinnon −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Connor McDavid +4pp 40→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 30% probability indicates that the market views this candidate as the leading contender for the Hart Memorial Trophy, but not as the favorite overall—two other outcomes command higher individual confidence. The Hart Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's Most Valuable Player, depends on regular-season performance metrics like goals, assists, and plus-minus rating, as well as team success and voter perception. The probability will likely shift based on remaining regular-season play, statistical performance trajectories, and playoff performance through the 2025-26 season's conclusion in June 2026. Key catalysts include month-by-month statistical updates, team standings changes, and any significant injuries affecting top contenders.

### Key factors

- Current leader holds 30% against runner-up at 27%, indicating a competitive, unsettled race rather than a runaway favorite
- Three separate Kalshi contracts aggregate the market view, suggesting reasonable liquidity but limited contract depth compared to established favorites
- Performance-based award means real-time stats (goals, assists, plus-minus) will be continuously updated through regular season and playoffs
- End-of-season voting occurs after regular season concludes (typically April), making remaining games and playoff performance critical variables
- Market concentration on other trophies (Vezina, Heisman) shows traders are active across NHL awards, indicating Hart market participants may be informed comparatively

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlhart
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlhart

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.