# Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 5 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlmetropolitan
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.879Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-01

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $93

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Capitals | 25¢ | +1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-capitals-win-the-metropolitan-kalshi-kxnhlmetropolitan-27-wsh |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-columbus-blue-jackets-win-the-metropolita-kalshi-kxnhlmetropolitan-27-cbj |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 41¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-carolina-hurricanes-win-the-metropolitan-kalshi-kxnhlmetropolitan-27-car |
| New Jersey Devils | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-jersey-devils-win-the-metropolitan-di-kalshi-kxnhlmetropolitan-27-nj |
| New York Rangers | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-rangers-win-the-metropolitan-div-kalshi-kxnhlmetropolitan-27-nyr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | 9 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · New Jersey Devils −7pp 15→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · New Jersey Devils +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 14% probability reflects traders' assessment that the Carolina Hurricanes have roughly a one-in-seven chance of finishing first in the NHL's Metropolitan Division during the 2026-27 season. The probability sits well below the Devils (7¢), suggesting markets view other division teams as stronger contenders. The Hurricanes' current odds depend primarily on their roster composition and recent performance trajectory heading into the season. The key catalyst for this market will be the division's performance in October and November 2026, when early-season results begin signaling which teams are genuinely competing for the top spot versus those falling behind. Trading volume remains minimal across all division winner contracts, indicating limited market activity at this stage of the offseason.

### Key factors

- Carolina's current roster composition and any significant trades or free agent acquisitions before the 2026-27 season begins
- Win-loss record during the opening two months of the 2026-27 season, which typically forecasts playoff positioning
- Injury status of key players, particularly goaltenders and top-six forwards, throughout the season
- Performance consistency against other Metropolitan Division teams in head-to-head matchups
- Comparative strength of competing teams' acquisitions and roster changes during the same offseason period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlmetropolitan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlmetropolitan

## License

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