# Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy

> Zach Werenski leads at 73%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlnorris
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.718Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Zach Werenski at 73%
- Runner-up: Rasmus Dahlin at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | 73¢ | −9pp | $695 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-james-norris-memorial-trophy-zach-wer-kalshi-kxnhlnorris-26-zwer |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-james-norris-memorial-trophy-rasmus-d-kalshi-kxnhlnorris-26-rdah |
| Roman Josi | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-james-norris-memorial-trophy-roman-jo-kalshi-kxnhlnorris-26-rjos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Zach Werenski | Rasmus Dahlin |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 81 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 69 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 86 | 1 |
| 2026-05-01 | 87 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 5 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Zach Werenski −10pp 89→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Zach Werenski −9pp 79→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Rasmus Dahlin +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market participants are pricing an 87% probability for a specific outcome in the James Norris Memorial Trophy award, indicating strong consensus around one recipient. This high confidence level reflects either dominant recent performance by a leading candidate or limited remaining uncertainty in the voting process. The probability would shift downward if competing candidates demonstrate exceptional late-season performance or if voting becomes more fragmented among voters. The primary catalyst determining final resolution is the conclusion of the NHL regular season and playoffs, combined with the voting period for this award. Market movement will likely accelerate as the postseason progresses and voter preferences become clearer. Any major injury, suspension, or unexpected performance decline by the frontrunner could meaningfully compress this probability.

### Key factors

- One candidate's current contract trades at 87%, indicating near-consensus among market participants on the likely winner
- The runner-up position trades at only 3%, suggesting substantial separation between the leader and alternatives
- Aggregate trading volume remains relatively modest (two Kalshi contracts), which could mean wider bid-ask spreads and less price discovery than higher-volume markets
- Final voting occurs after the regular season ends, so all remaining games represent potential catalysts for repricing
- Large performance differentials late in the season—such as elite statistical achievements or playoff heroics—historically drive Norris voting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlnorris
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlnorris

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.