# Will the Utah Mammoth qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 54% across 20 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlplayoff
Updated: 2026-08-27T08:20:51.062Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-25

## Headline

- Probability: 54% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $91

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 31¢ | +1pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-rangers-qualify-for-the-playoffs-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-nyr |
| New Jersey Devils | 55¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-jersey-devils-qualify-for-the-playoff-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-nj |
| Detroit Red Wings | 23¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-detroit-red-wings-qualify-for-the-playoff-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-det |
| San Jose Sharks | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-jose-sharks-qualify-for-the-playoffs-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-sj |
| Boston Bruins | 21¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-boston-bruins-qualify-for-the-playoffs-in-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-bos |
| Washington Capitals | 72¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-capitals-qualify-for-the-playo-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-wsh |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-chicago-blackhawks-qualify-for-the-playof-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-chi |
| Florida Panthers | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-florida-panthers-qualify-for-the-playoffs-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-fla |
| Buffalo Sabres | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-buffalo-sabres-qualify-for-the-playoffs-i-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-buf |
| Ottawa Senators | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-ottawa-senators-qualify-for-the-playoffs-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-ott |
| Anaheim Ducks | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-anaheim-ducks-qualify-for-the-playoffs-in-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-ana |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-carolina-hurricanes-qualify-for-the-playo-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-car |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 40¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-columbus-blue-jackets-qualify-for-the-pla-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-cbj |
| Calgary Flames | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-calgary-flames-qualify-for-the-playoffs-i-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-cgy |
| Colorado Avalanche | 88¢ | +86pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-colorado-avalanche-qualify-for-the-playof-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-col |
| Dallas Stars | 78¢ | +76pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-dallas-stars-qualify-for-the-playoffs-in-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-dal |
| Edmonton Oilers | 87¢ | +85pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-edmonton-oilers-qualify-for-the-playoffs-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-edm |
| Los Angeles Kings | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-los-angeles-kings-qualify-for-the-playoff-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-la |
| Minnesota Wild | 78¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minnesota-wild-qualify-for-the-playoffs-i-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-min |
| Montréal Canadiens | 58¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-montral-canadiens-qualify-for-the-playoff-kalshi-kxnhlplayoff-27-mtl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 49 |
| 2026-08-20 | 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | 45 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Colorado Avalanche +86pp 2→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Edmonton Oilers +85pp 2→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Dallas Stars +76pp 2→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Minnesota Wild +76pp 2→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · New Jersey Devils +51pp 2→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability of 75% reflects market expectation that the Utah Mammoth will finish among the top teams in their conference and secure a playoff berth in the 2026-27 season. The estimate sits above the Washington Capitals (70%) but below the Carolina Hurricanes (90%), suggesting traders view the Mammoth as a moderately strong playoff contender but not among the league's elite. The current level likely reflects the team's roster composition and recent performance trends, with movement driven by factors like mid-season injury reports, trade deadline activity, and head-to-head division matchups. Key resolution points include the team's win-loss record through December (indicating early season form) and performance during the final 20 games of the regular season, when playoff positioning typically crystallizes. Final regular season standings in April 2027 will ultimately determine qualification.

### Key factors

- The Mammoth's position in their division relative to direct competitors, as only top-4 teams in each conference qualify
- Injury status of key roster players during the season, particularly any losses to core contributors
- Trade market activity at the February 2027 deadline, reflecting the team's mid-season commitment level
- Recent possession and scoring metrics (shots, goals allowed) compared to historical playoff threshold benchmarks
- Head-to-head record against other wild-card contenders in their conference

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlplayoff

## License

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