# Will Cole Caufield record the most goals in the 1st Round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlplayoffgoals
Updated: 2026-05-04T18:50:19.539Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-16

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $141

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy | 27¢ | −1pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-boldy-record-the-most-goals-in-the-1st-r-kalshi-kxnhlplayoffgoals-26r1-minmbol |
| Zach Hyman | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-hyman-record-the-most-goals-in-the-1st-r-kalshi-kxnhlplayoffgoals-26r1-edmzhym |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Cole Caufield finishes the 2026 NHL playoffs' first round with more goals than any other player. At 6%, it suggests low confidence in this outcome. Caufield would need to both play a significant role in his team's first-round series and outscore other top offensive performers during that span. Key factors affecting this probability include Caufield's playoff scoring pace relative to league-leading goal scorers, his team's first-round matchup and series length, the health and performance of other high-volume goal scorers entering the playoffs, and historical precedent for younger players dominating first-round goal totals. The resolution will depend entirely on actual playoff performance once the first round concludes, likely in late May or early June 2026.

### Key factors

- Caufield's team seeding and opponent—easier matchups may extend series length and increase goal opportunities
- Historical first-round goal-scoring leaders and whether Caufield typically ranks among top-10 playoff goal scorers in any playoff run
- Injury status and roster composition of Caufield's team versus other playoff contenders with prolific scorers
- Caufield's career playoff performance and goal-scoring rate compared to current elite playoff performers
- Number of games played in first round—longer series provide more scoring opportunities, directly affecting total goal accumulation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlplayoffgoals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlplayoffgoals

## License

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