# Will the WPG Jets NHL team earn at least 85 points in the 2026-27 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 52% across 20 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlseasonpts
Updated: 2026-09-21T10:20:51.580Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-18

## Headline

- Probability: 52% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $92

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95+ points | 56¢ | +6pp | $72 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nj-devils-nhl-team-earn-at-least-95-point-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27nj-95 |
| 105+ points | 34¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-min-wild-nhl-team-earn-at-least-105-point-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27min-105 |
| 100+ points | 51¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-min-wild-nhl-team-earn-at-least-100-point-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27min-100 |
| 70+ points | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-70-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-70 |
| 75+ points | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-75-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-75 |
| 80+ points | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-80-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-80 |
| 85+ points | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-85-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-85 |
| 90+ points | 75¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-90-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-90 |
| 95+ points | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-95-po-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-95 |
| 100+ points | 48¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-100-p-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-100 |
| 105+ points | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-105-p-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-105 |
| 110+ points | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-110-p-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-110 |
| 115+ points | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wsh-capitals-nhl-team-earn-at-least-115-p-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wsh-115 |
| 70+ points | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-70-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-70 |
| 75+ points | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-75-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-75 |
| 80+ points | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-80-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-80 |
| 85+ points | 42¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-85-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-85 |
| 90+ points | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-90-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-90 |
| 95+ points | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-95-points-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-95 |
| 100+ points | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wpg-jets-nhl-team-earn-at-least-100-point-kalshi-kxnhlseasonpts-27wpg-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 50 |
| 2026-09-06 | 50 |
| 2026-09-17 | 43 |
| 2026-09-19 | 42 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · 85+ points +19pp 21→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · 100+ points +8pp 47→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · 100+ points −7pp 55→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · 95+ points +6pp 50→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a near coin-flip assessment of whether the Winnipeg Jets will accumulate at least 85 points during the 2026-27 NHL regular season. The 49% probability reflects uncertainty about the team's competitive positioning, with the Jets historically finishing in the middle tier of the league. Key drivers of this probability include roster stability (particularly goaltending and star player health), depth scoring consistency, and divisional competition strength. The probability will likely shift based on team performance early in the season—typically by November or December, patterns emerge that either confirm or refute preseason expectations. The exact outcome resolves when the regular season concludes in April 2027, at which point the Jets' final point total will be definitively known. Market pricing suggests only slight conviction either direction, indicating substantial disagreement about their competitive trajectory.

### Key factors

- Jets' average points per season over the past three years relative to 85-point threshold
- Turnover in the team's roster (trades, free agency, retirements) between now and October 2026
- Starting goaltender performance and injury history entering 2026-27 season
- Strength of schedule and divisional competition (Pacific Division composition)
- Historical correlation between preseason expectations and actual regular-season performance for NHL teams at this point range

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlseasonpts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlseasonpts

## License

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