# Who will win Vezina Trophy

> Andrei Vasilevskiy leads at 86%, runner-up 14% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlvezina
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.437Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Andrei Vasilevskiy at 86%
- Runner-up: Thatcher Demko at 14%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $680

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-andrei-vasilevskiy-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-avas |
| Thatcher Demko | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-thatcher-demko-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-tdem |
| Jacob Markstrom | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-jacob-markstrom-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-jmar |
| Ilya Sorokin | 5¢ | +1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-ilya-sorokin-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-isor |
| Juuse Saros | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-juuse-saros-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-jsar |
| Jeremy Swayman | 3¢ | ±0 | $586 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-jeremy-swayman-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-jswa |
| Joey Daccord | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-vezina-trophy-joey-daccord-kalshi-kxnhlvezina-26-jdac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Ilya Sorokin | Jeremy Swayman |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 71 | 19 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 85 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 4 | 2 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-04-29 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 83 | 7 | 2 |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 6 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Andrei Vasilevskiy −5pp 88→83¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 83% probability on Andrei Vasilevskiy reflects market expectations that he will win the Vezina Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's best goaltender. This strong confidence reflects Vasilevskiy's track record as a two-time Vezina winner and his ongoing performance with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The primary factors supporting this level are his season statistics and historical accomplishment, while meaningful competition from goalies like Ilya Sorokin (priced at 6%) could push the probability lower if their teams perform exceptionally well down the stretch. The Vezina winner is determined by a vote among NHL broadcasters, coaches, and media following the regular season, typically announced in June. Changes in goaltender performance, team playoff positioning, and voting patterns from previous years will ultimately determine whether Vasilevskiy maintains this favorite status through award announcement.

### Key factors

- Vasilevskiy's historical voting patterns and prior Vezina wins provide a baseline expectation for voter familiarity and preference
- Regular-season save percentage and goals-against average for top candidates will be publicly available metrics voters use for comparison
- The gap between Vasilevskiy at 83% and Sorokin at 6% suggests market assigns meaningful probability to alternatives, indicating uncertainty remains resolvable
- Award voting occurs post-season in June 2026, creating a defined date when all statistical performance data becomes final
- Voter composition (broadcasters, coaches, media) may weight performance differently, affecting how close statistical performances translate to voting margins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhlvezina
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhlvezina

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.